Something seems so familiar about this matchup. Oh, right. These two teams met to play for the world championship of baseball last October (and November), and for those scoring at home, the Kansas City Royals took home the title by beating the Mets in four times out of five. For those who are wondering and don’t already know, the schedule was put out long before the playoffs even began, so Major League Baseball got lucky with this matchup. It’s a good thing the Royals won the series, too, because think how awkward it would be to raise an AL champions flag against the team that made you raise that one instead of a world champions flag.
The Mets have a lot of the same parts in the fold from when these two teams last met, but also have made a few changes here and there, so let’s talk about that team to get you prepared for what you’ll see.
Offensively, the Mets had a tale of two seasons in 2015. Prior to the trade deadline, they were one of the worst offenses in baseball. After? One of the best. What changed was Yoenis Cespedes came on board along with the additions of Juan Uribe, Kelly Johnson and Michael Conforto. You probably know by now that the Mets were able to retain Cespedes on a surprising free agent deal while Conforto was just a pup last year, so he’s under team control for awhile.
They did lose Uribe and Johnson, but made a couple upgrades offensively. They lost postseason hero, Daniel Murphy, to free agency and replaced him by acquiring Neil Walker to play second. They’re similar players, but Walker is probably a bit better offensively. At shortstop, they upgraded by signing Asdrubal Cabrera, though he looks like he’ll be out in the early-going of the season. They also have Travis d’Arnaud behind the plate. He’s not great with the glove, but he can definitely hit if he stays healthy.
Lucas Duda is still at first base and David Wright at third. Both are solid offensive performers and both can carry an offense for some time. Moving to the outfield, the Mets are pretty well stacked there as joining Cespedes and Conforto is Curtis Granderson. They have crazy amounts of depth (for now) with Juan Lagares and Alejandro De Aza. De Aza was signed by the Mets to platoon with Lagares in center before they were able to bring back Cespedes. That means De Aza likely won’t be with the team for long this year, , but for now he’s great depth for a team with a really solid looking offense.
Of course, the starting pitching is the calling card of theses Mets. A quartet featuring Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz is regarded as the best rotation in baseball. deGrom won’t turn 28 until June and he’s the oldest of the four. All have fantastic stuff and have the potential to be legitimate aces. It hardly seems fair the Mets have them all. After trading Jonathan Niese to the Pirates to acquire Walker, the fifth spot in the rotation goes back to the elder statesman, Bartolo Colon. Aside from being fantastic to watch, the guy can still pitch a little bit, even at almost 43.
The bullpen isn’t quite as daunting to face as the rotation, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have an excellent closer in Jeurys Familia. It’s not that the rest of the pen doesn’t have a chance to be solid for the Mets. It’s just that they’re not on the level of either the rotation or Familia. Addison Reed has been a closer throughout his career with the White Sox and Diamondbacks and sets up for the Mets. Hansel Robles is young and hard to hit. He has some control issues at times, but he can pitch. They picked up Antonio Bastardo to work as a lefty out of the pen, and his career body of work is very good, so he’ll be a solid addition for them this season. They also added Jim Henderson, and he had a very good spring. Sean Gilmartin and Jerry Blevins also add depth from the left side.
All in all, this is another very good Mets team. I know a lot of people are high on the Nationals because people are high on the Nationals every year, but with that pitching and that offensive firepower, it’s hard for me to pick against them.
Sunday – Edinson Volquez vs. Matt Harvey
We have ourselves a rematch of both Game One of the 2015 World Series and Game Five. Both games were won by the Royals, but neither starting pitcher factored in the decision for either game. There was some doubt whether or not Harvey would make this start as he had a bit of a medical scare, but he’s good to go, so we open the the 2016 season with the same starters who closed out 2015. Harvey, of course, came back last season from Tommy John surgery and was outstanding. He made 29 starts, posted a 2.71 ERA and a 3.08 FIP along with a 5.4 WARP.
Harvey does it all. He gets swings and misses, he has great command and he elicits weak contact. He’s a very difficult pitcher to face. His only two career starts against the Royals were in the World Series last year. He gave up five runs on 10 hits in 14 innings, but as I mentioned before, did not receive a decision. He did, however, get a win in an argument with Terry Collins about whether or not he would go back out for the ninth inning in Game Five, so he has that to fall back on.
Three things to watch for against Harvey:
- Harvey relies heavily on a really good four seam fastball that he gets some oomph behind, throwing it at 96-97 MPH on average. He mixes in three other pitches well, featuring a change up, slider and a curve. The change is a pretty hard one, averaging nearly 89 MPH, but is really difficult for hitters to time. Both the slider and the curve are effective breaking balls. He utilizes the slider when facing right-handed bats and the curve more when facing lefties, but he doesn’t shelf the pitch for either side, so hitters have to be prepared for anything against him.
- It may be worth noting that Harvey was a lot more ordinary away from home last season, posting an ERA more than a run higher along with a decreased strikeout rate and an increased walk rate. He also struggled (relatively, he was still good) as he got deeper into games, allowing a .704 OPS the third time through an order compared to below .600 for each of the first two times through. That might be especially relevant early in the season when pitchers aren’t typically getting into the late innings of games. He may tire earlier than you’d see in, say, June or July.
- For his career, Harvey has very little platoon split, limiting lefties and righties pretty equally, but last year, he allowed a .676 OPS to lefties compared to a .544 OPS to right-handed hitters. Royals hitters don’t have much experience against him, but Lorenzo Cain has a couple hits and a walk against him in seven plate appearances and Alcides Escobar does have that inside-the-park home run.
Edinson Volquez doesn’t have the stuff that Matt Harvey does, but he turned in a quality season for the Royals in 2015, cracking the 200 inning plateau for the first time. As a National Leaguer for the bulk of his career, he’s faced the Mets a fair amount in the regular season. In nine starts, he’s gone 2-5 with a 5.70 ERA. Of course, he also faced them twice in the World Series last year, and gave up five runs (four earned) in 12 innings. Among Mets he’s faced more than just a few times, he’s gotten hit pretty hard by Granderson, Duda and Cabrera, but has really limited Wright, Walker and d’Arnaud.
Tuesday – Chris Young vs. Noah Syndergaard
I think it’s safe to assume that when Syndergaard takes the mound, he won’t be greeted by people who are especially fond of him. After stating that he had a trick up his sleeve and then buzzing Alcides Escobar’s tower in game three of the World Series, Syndergaard has become persona non grata in Kansas City. Other than that, he burst onto the scene in 2015 with a fantastic rookie year that showed promise toward an excellent career.
He really has it all as a pitcher. He throws hard, gets swings and misses, has great command, and he’s somewhat intimidating. It’s hard to argue with what he did as a rookie in 24 starts. The only concern the Mets might have about him is that he could possibly maybe wear down after seeing an innings increase in 2015 of nearly 70 innings. He’s only faced the Royals the one time in his career and was honestly just okay, giving up three runs in six innings.
Three things to watch for against Syndergaard:
- I mentioned Syndergaard throws hard, right? He averaged nearly 98 MPH on his fastball last season and threw it more than one-third of the time. He also threw a ridiculously hard sinker another roughly quarter of the time. He throws a really good curve that is responsible for many strikeouts and a solid change up that keeps hitters honest, even though it is up to 88 or 89 MPH. The sinker is the pitch he had a little trouble with last season, but trouble is relative. It’s still a fantastic pitch for him.
- While the fastball is great, the key to Syndergaard is making him throw it in a count you know he’s going to throw it in. The off speed stuff goes a long way toward making him an excellent pitcher, and it shows with what he’s allowed when ahead or even in the count compared with being behind in the count with the batter. When he’s ahead in the count or even, he allows an OPS of .483. When behind in the count, though, that number jumps astronomically to 1.083. It’s easier said than done because of his control, but take some pitches and force him to use his fastball. It’s the pitch that can be hit.
- Syndergaard has a pretty typical platoon split, allowing an OPS of just over .600 to righties and just under .700 to lefties. The sample is obviously small, but the Royals got some good looks at him early in the game the one time they faced him. Cain, Gordon, Escobar, Moustakas and Perez all had hits against him. Perez even worked a walk. If that’s not newsworthy, I don’t know what is.
Ian Kennedy was originally supposed to make this start for the Royals, but his hamstring tweak that he suffered in his last spring start means his Royals debut will have to wait until Saturday night. In his place, the Royals will turn to a former Mets hurler, Chris Young. Young followed up a very good year with the Mariners with an even better one with the Royals that included allowing just two runs in seven innings in the World Series last year. Not including the postseason, though, Young is 0-1 with a 6.05 ERA against the Mets in four starts spanning 19.1 innings. Of course, that damage was done by a lot of players not currently with the Mets. He’s been outstanding against the two Mets he’s faced more than just a few times and he’s held Wright to a .424 OPS and Cespedes to a .319 OPS.
This is going to be an emotional series with the World Series banner being raised and rings given out. I think the Royals will ride the wave of emotion with the insane crowds and have a really solid series. It’s only two games and I always have a hard time predicting sweeps, but I think the Royals take both games to open the season.
What do you think?