After a 4-3 road trip, the Kansas City Royals return home for a six-game homestand that begins with a visit from the division rival Detroit Tigers. The Tigers had a disappointing season last year, finishing at 74-87 and in last place in the AL Central. That was on the heels of four consecutive American League Central titles. The Royals, as you know, are now the reigning kings of the division, so the Tigers will likely feel like they need to make a statement in this series. In spite of the down year, the Tigers played the Royals well last season, but the Royals held a 10-9 edge in the season series anyway.
My concern about the Tigers as a threat to the Royals coming into the season is that they’d be great offensively. So far, my concern has been right. They’re averaging better than five runs per game and have been hitting home runs in bunches. What’s most crazy about that is they’re doing so well offensively with their star, Miguel Cabrera, hitting .262/.367/.381. The hope here is that once he gets going, the rest of the lineup will have cooled off, but there’s a lot of talent in this unit.
The heavy lifting of the offense is being done by quite a few players, which always helps. The most surprising probably is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who has a slugging percentage over .800. That likely won’t last. J.D. Martinez is following up his big year from last year with another fantastic start to the year. He’s even only struck out nine times so far. Victor Martinez is following up his horrendous year from last year with a very solid start. He’s not striking out, he’s getting on base and he’s hitting for power. Nobody can be sure how long it’ll last with his health, but for now, he’s good again. Ian Kinsler has been a machine in the early going, hitting four homers in the first 11 games for the Tigers after hitting 11 all of last season. Jose Iglesias has walked twice as much as he’s struck out in the first 11 games, so his line looks fantastic too. And finally, Nick Castellanos has been outstanding this year, though 0 walks and 13 strikeouts should catch up with him at some point.
The other surprise non-performance for the Tigers is by their prize offseason offensive acquisition, Justin Upton. He’s hitting just .240/.255/.360 and has 20 strikeouts to just one walk so far. Anthony Gose hasn’t been good either, but that’s a little less surprising. The Tigers bench was thinned a bit with the loss of James McCann to the disabled list, but they still have a pretty good unit there. Tyler Collins has a little pop off the bench. Andrew Romine can play anywhere on the infield. Bobby Wilson is a backup to the backup catcher, so that’s as good as he is, but it’s not the worst thing in the world. And they have Mike Aviles, our old friend from the dark days. He’s carved out a nice niche as a utility infielder and has a chance to be a contributor to this club.
On the pitching side, the Tigers were hopeful that one big addition and two returns to greatness would turn their rotation around. So far, as a whole, not so much. The rotation has a 4.45 ERA and is averaging less than six innings per start. Their other prize offseason acquisition was Jordan Zimmermann, and he’s been amazing with 13 shutout innings to start his Tigers career. Of course, he’s struck out seven and walked five in those 13 innings, so you have to assume he’ll see some regression soon enough. Justin Verlander was proclaimed to be back after a great finish to his 2015 season. He has a 7.16 ERA through three starts and has allowed more hits than innings pitched. Anibal Sanchez hasn’t been bad necessarily, but he hasn’t been good either, and only got the strikeout pitch working against the Astros, a team that strikes out a lot. The rotation is rounded out by Mike Pelfrey, who isn’t especially good and Shane Greene, who also isn’t especially good. This part of the team looks like it might still be a problem for Detroit.
The bullpen has been a problem for years in Detroit, and general manager Al Avila tried to change that again with some free agent signings and trades. They acquired Francisco Rodriguez from the Brewers to shore up the closer’s role. He blew a save and gave up three runs in his first inning of work, but has been nearly perfect since then, allowing just a hit and two walks in his last 4.1 innings. He’s not striking hitters out, so that’s worth paying attention to moving forward, but he’s been mostly good. They also traded for Justin Wilson from the Yankees, and he’s been outstanding as a lefty. He hasn’t allowed a run in 5.1 innings and he’s struck out 8 while walking just one. And then they signed Mark Lowe as a free agent. He hasn’t been as good, allowing runs in three of his six games, but after really reviving his career last year, he’ll keep getting some chances. The rest of the bullpen is filled out by internal guys the Tigers had already. Drew VerHagen has the most appearances of anyone, and has three walks to one strikeout this year. Logan Kensing has given up eight hits in 4.2 innings. Kyle Ryan and Alex Wilson have rounded out the bullpen, and have been fine in limited action. It’s still so early, but it does look like the bullpen might be better for the Tigers this year, though they still have their holes.
Tuesday – Yordano Ventura vs. Shane Greene
Greene started off last season on fire for the Tigers, holding a 0.39 ERA through three starts spanning 23 innings. Then the wheels fell off. He had an 8.56 ERA in his next 12 starts before being relegated to the bullpen before his season was cut short. He’s back this year, and was very good in his first start against the Pirates, allowing just two runs on three hits over six innings. Greene has solid stuff, so it’s no surprise when he has good results, but he will allow things to get away from him very easily at times. He’s faced the Royals twice in his career and been fantastic, going 13 innings with a 0.69 ERA. Last year, he threw eight innings and allowed just one run on four hits. So the Royals have seen the best of Greene in the couple times they’ve faced him.
Three things to watch for against Greene:
- Greene relies pretty heavily on a sinker that averages around 93 MPH with good movement. It helps him get a decent amount of ground balls, which, if hit up the middle, is good with his defense. It hasn’t been the most effective pitch in the world, though, as it flattens out too often and the ground balls are rocket shots a lot of the time. He also throws a four-seam fastball at a similar velocity that has been surprisingly better than the sinker. He mixes in a cutter that comes in around 87-88 and it’s been fantastic. He rounds out his repertoire with a slider and a changeup, but both pitches can be whacked by opponents.
- There’s not really a bad time to face Greene, as he gives up runs in all situations, but he does differ from a lot of pitchers who rely on the sinker in that he doesn’t get better as the game goes on. From the 51st pitch on in his starts, Greene has allowed a .308/.372/.512 line to hitters. The moral of this story is that if you don’t get to Greene early, there’s a good chance you’ll get there eventually.
- In his career, Greene has been really tough on right-handed bats and lefties have hit him like it was going out of style. That does seem to bode well for most of the power in the Royals lineup. Alex Gordon and Kendrys Morales do each have doubles against Greene in their careers, but nobody has really faced him much. I would think this is a game that has a good shot to be a big one for either of those two or Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas as well. If I had to bet, I’d say that one of these lefties fares well.
Ventura had decent results in his first start, but was shaky with control. In his second start, he was better. He did still walk three batters, but he had 14 swinging strikes and got seven ground balls. The Tigers are a tougher test than the first two foes he’s faced, but I like where this is headed for Ventura. He’s 4-0 in his career against the Tigers in six games (five starts). He’s logged 32.2 innings against them and has a 3.86 ERA with 33 strikeouts. Last year, he was 2-0 in four starts against them with 26 strikeouts in 24 innings. Both of the Martinez boys, Gose and Kinsler have hit Ventura well in limited at bats, but he has been good against Cabrera.
Wednesday – Ian Kennedy vs. Jordan Zimmermann
It was rumored that Zimmermann was almost a Royal when the team was shopping Zack Greinke following the 2010 season. It would have been nice to have him in the rotation the last couple seasons, but I still think the Royals made out okay in the deal they ended up making. Zimmermann signed with the Tigers this offseason, earning a five year deal worth $110 million. As I mentioned above, he’s been worth every penny so far, having not allowed a run yet this year. He’s a guy you can count on for 32 or 33 starts and around 200 innings every year with very good control. The guy can pitch. He’s made one career start against the Royals, back in 2013, and went 7.2 innings and gave up just two runs on eight hits.
Three things to watch for against Zimmermann:
- Zimmermann relies very heavily on his four seam fastball, and if you want to be a little concerned as a Tigers fan, his velocity is down. He’s averaging about 92.5 MPH, off from a touch under 93.5 MPH last year. It’s so early that you can’t worry too much about that, but it’s something to keep an eye on. In his first two starts this year, he’s thrown his slider more than he did last season, which is also a trend to pay attention to as the season progresses. He also throws a solid curve and according to Brooks Baseball, he’s thrown just two less changeups this year already than he did all of last year.
- Zimmermann throws strikes and doesn’t have dominating stuff, so that’s a recipe for some success from Royals hitters, I would think. On the first pitch, he allowed a .369 average and .468 slugging percentage last year. Watch out for that Alcides Escobar ambush. Because he doesn’t have that great stuff, he does get hurt when behind in the count more than a guy who can just overpower you. But when he’s ahead in the count, he can unleash his slider and do some damage. So I guess the gameplan here is if you’re going to swing early, get a hit and don’t get yourself into a hole.
- Last year, Zimmermann was great against righties and struggled a bit against lefties, allowing a .617 and .776 OPS respectively. The split jives with the rest of his career, though it isn’t as extreme when looking at the full body of work. This year, nobody has hit him well. Yet. Omar Infante has faced Zimmermann more than anyone in the Royals lineup and has hit a gentleman’s .176 in 18 plate appearances. He does have a home run against him, so if you want to dream a little…
The Royals counter with their big free agent pitching acquisition in this one. Kennedy hasn’t been shutout good in his first two starts with the Royals, but it’s been awfully close. He’s allowed just one run on seven hits in 13.2 innings pitched this year and has struck out 14 while walking just three. He’s struggled with the home run ball throughout his career and this Tigers team can hit home runs, so if it’s as damp out as expected, that might benefit him more than Zimmermann. He’s made three career starts against the Tigers, going 0-2 with a 5.71 ERA. His last start against them was in 2014. Kinsler, Cabrera and Upton have all hit him well, but nobody has more than 12 plate appearances against him in their careers. Upton also has a homer.
Thursday – Edinson Volquez vs. Mike Pelfrey
Pelfrey is a pitcher who doesn’t strike guys out, gives up a ton of hits and doesn’t have elite control. He’s made 69 starts over the last four seasons (plus his two this year) and gone just 370.1 innings, so he’s not a workhorse either in the season sense (high of 164.2 innings in that time) or per game (an average of 5.1 innings per start). The Tigers gave him a two-year deal. No, the money isn’t huge, but still, that one was a head scratcher to me. Pelfrey is the type of pitcher who will stymie an opponent here and there, but for the most part, isn’t an especially good big league pitcher. He was with the Twins before coming to the Tigers, so he’s faced the Royals a little. He’s 1-2 with a 5.34 ERA in six starts that span 28.2 innings. In those six starts, he’s struck out 15 and walked nine. He actually pitched well against the Royals last year, though, so that’s something you can file away in the “you never know” file.
Three things to watch for against Pelfrey:
- Pelfrey throws a sinker about 3/4 of the time, so hitters should just sit on that. In the early going, he’s also seen a velocity drop, going from about 94 MPH last year on the pitch to an average of about 92.5 MPH this year. He also throws a splitter in the low-80s to go along with the occasional slider and curve. The sinker gets hit a lot and gets hit hard. He has gotten a lot of ground balls this season, though, so there’s that for him.
- A big key against Pelfrey is to get him in the stretch with runners in scoring position. Last year, he allowed a .299/.341/.428 line with nobody on, which is still obviously not a bad line if you’re an opponent. But with runners in scoring position, that ballooned to .364/.450/.497. The sinker just seems to flatten out when he’s in these situations and he just gives up an awful lot of hits. Get to second base and the Royals should be just fine.
- Last year, Pelfrey had a big platoon split, holding righties to a decent .716 OPS while lefties crushed him with an OPS of .834. He’s always had a traditional platoon split, but his career numbers aren’t quite as divided. Infante has faced him a whopping 45 times and has a career .415/.467/.463 against him. Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Moustakas and Gordon have all also fared well against him.
Volquez has to be pleased with the way his season has started with a 2-0 record and a 2.04 ERA. I’d love to see him start getting deeper into games, though, now that the first few starts of the season are out of the way. His changeup will be an important pitch in this game. The Tigers have a couple guys who have been good against it, but as a whole, they struggle a bit, and Volquez’s change is one of the better ones out there. He’s just 1-4 with a 6.21 ERA in seven career starts against the Tigers, and that includes an 0-2 mark with a 6.55 ERA last year in four starts. Cabrera, Gose, Upton and Castellanos have all hit him well, but he has limited Iglesias and both of the Martinezes really well. So, it’s sort of a mixed bag.
This is a better Tigers team than we saw last season, but I still think the Royals are the better club, and it helps that the Royals miss both Verlander and Sanchez. I don’t care what kind of season they’re having. Guys like that will always scare me for no good reason. I think the Royals take two of three in this series, and if I had to guess, I’d say it would be games one and three that they win, but baseball has a way of doing things you don’t expect, so don’t hold me to which games I see as wins. I do think they get back on track, though, and win a series against a division contender.