Series Preview, Royals at Minnesota Twins, May 23-25

The Royals continue their short road trip with the first visit of the year to Minneapolis to take on the last place Minnesota Twins. The Twins were maybe the surprise of baseball last year when they finished in second place in the Central with an 83-79 record. This year, they appear to be in contention for the number one pick in next year’s draft, which is difficult to do considering the year the Braves are having. Basically everything is going wrong for the Twins, so it makes sense that they’re one of the worst teams in baseball. You’ll recall that the Royals swept the Twins in April in Kansas City. The Royals are now 41-19 against the Twins since the start of the 2013 season.

Twins Offense

I didn’t expect offense to be a problem for the Twins this season as they have a few players who are average or better and a couple guys who could break out to be big contributors. I was wrong. Miguel Sano has followed up his huge rookie season by really struggling to do much of anything other than walk. He still has massive power, but he’s not the star most people expected him to blossom into this season. Joe Mauer looked like he might have rediscovered his hitting stroke early in the year, but not so much. He does still get on base a ton through walks, so there’s all sorts of value. He’s just not the same. And Brian Dozier has followed up back to back seasons of at least 23 home runs with a dud of a way to start the year.

The Twins offense is being saved by Byung-ho Park and Eduardo Nunez. Park is putting on a power show, hitting home runs a very long way. He has contact issues, but the power translated very quickly for him. Nunez has been fantastic this season, especially filling in for the injured Eduardo Escobar. Trevor Plouffe has missed some time with an injury this year, but he’s one of the few Twins hitting around average or better.

The rest of the team is filled with struggling players and/or underachievers. Kurt Suzuki continues to struggle to hit after a great first half in 2014. Eddie Rosario was so bad he had to be sent down. Oswaldo Arcia hasn’t been much better, though he has hit a few home runs. John Ryan Murphy was supposed to be a nice backup who could hit, but he didn’t hit and now he’s in Triple-A. Danny Santana has been pushed to center field duty because Byron Buxton couldn’t hit big league pitching, and Santana has been almost as bad as Buxton was. Now the bench includes Jorge Polanco, Juan Centeno and Darin Mastroianni. I still think the Twins have a big future, but it’s not pretty right now.

Twins Pitching

The Twins have one of the worst cumulative pitching staffs in baseball, and it starts with their rotation. Remember when they signed Phil Hughes to a bargain deal and then he outpitched his contract in the first year and they reworked the deal to give him a lot more money? Yeah, that wasn’t all that smart. He still has great control, but he’s not striking out hitters like he did in 2014 and now he’s one of their worst starters. Ricky Nolasco has actually been sort of okay for them this year, but he’s also Ricky Nolasco. The saviors have been Ervin Santana and Tyler Duffey. Santana hasn’t been an ace or anything, but he’s done a nice job of giving some innings and keeping the Twins in games. Duffey was actually quite good as a rookie last year and has continued to show flashes of being a guy the Twins can count on every fifth day. It’s hard not to like what he’s given them. Kyle Gibson being out has hurt their depth, but he should be back soon. For their sake, hopefully he’s better than he was before he got hurt. They’ve tried top prospect Jose Berrios in the rotation, but he got rocked, too. It’s been a rough road.

In the bullpen, the Twins lost Glen Perkins to an injury right after their series in Kansas City. He’s targeting an early June return, but shoulder injuries are hard to predict. Kevin Jepsen stepped in as their closer and has been less than good. Really, they’ve had issues throughout the bullpen this year. I thought they had a chance to be decent out of the bullpen. Again, I was wrong. Ryan Pressly has struggled with control and the home run ball. Oh, and he’s also been fairly easy to hit. Trevor May looked like he was going to become a very good reliever, but has struggled as well. He has struck out a lot of batters at least. They’ve had to rotate through a lot of guys, but Michael Tonkin and Fernando Abad have actually been pretty darn solid for them, so they have that to hang their hat on. Pat Dean, Brandon Kintzler and Taylor Rogers round out the unit that has struggled all year.

Game 1, Monday: Ian Kennedy vs. Ricky Nolasco

Nolasco has been one of the worst free agent signings any team has made over the last few seasons. He’s posted a 5.46 ERA in 245.2 innings since the start of the 2014 season and dealt with injuries last season that cost him most of the year. This year, he has been a lot better, walking fewer hitters while maintaining a good enough strikeout rate. He’s even become a bit less easy to hit, though he’s still allowed far too many hits this season. He started the year off pretty well, but is 0-2 with a 6.65 ERA in four May starts, so he’s trending the wrong way. As bad as he’s been with the Twins, he’s gone 2-3 with a 3.83 ERA in seven starts against the Royals in his career, all since joining Minnesota. The Royals rocked him last season, but he gave up just one run on three hits in seven innings in a start against the Royals in April.

Three things to watch for against Nolasco:

1. He throws a fastball and a sinker, both at about 91-92 MPH for a bit under half of his pitches. Neither has great movement, but both can be good when they’re working. His slider is his strikeout pitch, but the problem is that it can get really flat, which allows it to be beaten all around the park. He also throws a slow curve that has actually been pretty impressive this season.
2. Get Nolasco in the stretch, and he becomes a different pitcher. A far less effective pitcher. With nobody on base, he’s allowed a .228/.263/.441 line, which is a little more power than you’d like to see as a Twins fan, but it’s a solid line. With runners on, he’s allowed a .348/.356/.500 line. With runners in scoring position, it gets really bad. The line against him is .378/.373/.578.
3. He has a pretty typical platoon split that is playing to his career numbers this year. He’s allowed a .790 OPS to lefties this year compared to .735 against righties. Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar have all had a fair amount of success against Nolasco. Lorenzo Cain has been held down quite a bit by him in 11 plate appearances.

I mentioned this the first time the two teams played, but Kennedy’s ability to get swings and misses on his fastball makes him a good matchup against a Twins team that strikes out quite a bit. He was great against them in April, and I think he has a good chance to repeat that effort or at least put up some similar numbers. Kennedy is doing exactly what the Royals had hoped for when they gave him a five-year deal this offseason, as he’s on pace for 200+ quality innings. He’s 2-1 with a 3.43 ERA in three career starts against the Twins which includes his 6.2 shutout innings earlier this season. Plouffe has had his way with Kennedy in limited at bats, but that’s about it as far as Twins hitters finding success against him.

Game 2, Tuesday: Edinson Volquez vs. Ervin Santana

Santana has been very good to start the season with his strikeouts ticking up a little bit from last season. He’s walked a few too many this year, but it’s not that far out of line with what he’s done in his career, so it’s probably not much to worry about for Twins fans. I think with the dearth of pitching options on the market and the Twins struggles this season, Santana could be a really interesting name on the trade market if the Twins choose to put him out there. He’s 5-7 with a 4.54 ERA in 17 career starts against his former team but has a 2.57 ERA in three career starts against them since joining the Twins.

Three things to watch for against Santana:

1. Santana throws a ton of fastballs, nearly 45 percent of his pitches are the four-seamer. He throws it at 93-94 MPH and it’s been really effective this season. When he needs a strikeout, he goes to the slider. He also goes to it in other counts, but it’s a really good swing and miss pitch. He also throws the occasional changeup and sinker. Both are okay pitches, but nothing special.
2. So this is pretty weird, and I’m not sure what it means given the effectiveness of Santana’s slider: When Santana is behind in the count, he’s been better than any other situation, allowing a .114/.322/.205 line. When he’s ahead in the count, he’s gotten lit up, allowing a .375 average with a .542 slugging percentage. No, I don’t get it, but it’s interesting.
3. He’s been better against lefties this season, but that isn’t the case for his career numbers, so that seems likely to even out as the season progresses. Eric Hosmer and Alex Gordon have each hit well against Santana with two homers each. Jarrod Dyson has two hits in five at bats as well, but those three along with Escobar are the only hitters to really do much of anything against him.

Volquez has been a little up and down recently, which is something that happened to him in the middle of 2015 as well. He has alternated good starts with not so good starts over his last few outings, and the good news is that if that trend continues, he’s due for a good start after giving up four runs in six innings against the Red Sox on Wednesday. He’s 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA in seven games (six starts) against the Twins in his career. The relief appearance came last year when the Royals helped him get to 200 innings for the season. Mauer has hit Volquez hard and has a homer against him, while Arcia also has hit a home run against him in his career. Other than that, he’s handled the Twins offense.

Game 3, Wednesday: Dillon Gee vs. Tyler Duffey

Duffey was a fifth round pick of the Twins a few years ago and was never considered a top prospect, but he kept pitching better and better as he climbed the ranks through the Twins system. In his big league debut last year, he pitched well over 10 starts that spanned 58 innings. I know the Twins had some inventory issues, but I was a little surprised when he didn’t break camp in their rotation as I thought it was pretty clear he was one of their five best. He’s back now and seems to have taken a step forward with his command. He looks like a guy who might stick around for awhile. This’ll be Duffey’s first start against the Royals in his career.

Three things to watch for against Duffey:

1. Duffey isn’t overpowering in any way, which is a reason why he was never a top prospect. In fact, he relies on a curve more than any other pitch, including his fastball. He throws that curve more than 40 percent of the time. It’s a really good one, and hitters struggle with it. He throws his fastball at about 91-92 MPH and it gets hit around pretty good. Same story for his sinker. The curve is his ride or die pitch.
2. In his career, he starts off games like crazy, holding hitters down the first time through the lineup to the tune of a .482 OPS. Then the second time through, hitters have a .780 OPS. If he sees them a third time, that number rises to .886 and goes all the way up to .929 the fourth time, but the fourth time is rare. So wait Duffey out. He can be beat as the game progresses.
3. Duffey doesn’t have a huge platoon split, but he’s been better against righties than lefties. Duffey has never faced any Royals hitters, but Paulo Orlando, Omar Infante, Gordon and Hosmer all have hit curves well this year, so they might be good bets to have a good game against him in this one.

Gee will make his third start, and he’s been good in his first two. Based on his pitches in his first two starts, he’s likely good to go without any real restrictions for this one. He’s shown the ability in his career to give quality innings, so it would be great if he could do that in this one leading up to another big series against the White Sox over the weekend. Gee has one career start against the Twins, giving up just one unearned run against them in 7.2 innings in 2013. He pitched against them in relief in April and threw two scoreless innings as well. He hasn’t faced too many Twins hitters too often, but he’s been hit fairly well by them. Nunez, Suzuki, Mauer, Plouffe and Santana have all had their way with him. Of course, none of them have more than nine plate appearances against him, so take that for what it’s worth.

The Prediction

This is a bad, bad Twins team. This Royals team is much better, but they’ve had their struggles at times on the road this season. I think the Royals win this series and I really want to say they sweep it, but I think the Twins find a way to pull one of the games out and the Royals end up taking two of three before they head home for another big series with the White Sox.