Series Preview: Royals at Chicago White Sox, June 10-12

Maybe the Royals are trying to use their ice cold bats to cool off Kansas City, which is suddenly quite warm. If we choose to think about their struggles that way, we realize that the struggles are for the greater good. Of course, the greater good doesn’t help the Royals win a division. Beating division rivals, however, does. And now the Royals head to Chicago to take on the White Sox yet again. So far, they’ve won five of six from the Pale Hose after sweeping a thrilling (for the Royals) series in Kansas City and winning two of three in Chicago. The last time the White Sox won the season series from the Royals was back in 2010. Since then, the Royals are 63-36 against them. If they’re going to get right, this seems like it would be the time.

As I did with the last series preview with the White Sox, I’m not going to tell you about who they have on offense and what they’re capable of. You know that by now. I’ll give you what they’ve done recently, though, to give you an idea of who is hot and who, well, isn’t.

White Sox Offense

Here’s what White Sox hitters have done over the last 14 days. They did designate Jimmy Rollins for assignment just ahead of the series and called up their top position player prospect, Tim Anderson. Anderson was the White Sox first round pick in 2013 and was hitting .304/.325/.409 in AAA with 58 strikeouts and just eight walks.

And now it’s been announced that Austin Jackson has been placed on the disabled list, so cross him off the list too. They called up Jason Coats in his place. He was hitting .335/.399/.567 in AAA this year and is 0 for 5 in two big league games this season.

White Sox Pitching

One thing I will say about the pitching before I get into the numbers is that they did acquire old friend James Shields from the Padres. He has made one start with the White Sox, and let’s just say it didn’t go well. He gave up seven runs on eight hits over a whopping two innings. He walked two, struck out two and gave up two home runs. But he only threw one wild pitch, so there’s that. There’s also news surrounding Carlos Rodon, who was skipped in the series finale against the Nationals. He has neck discomfort that apparently has begun to show symptoms in his throwing arm. They say there’s no structural damage, but this is something to keep an eye on for sure.

And here’s a look at what White Sox pitchers have done over the last month or so.

Starters

Relievers

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Game 1, Friday: Ian Kennedy vs. Chris Sale

The Royals were on the verge of missing Chris Sale during the last game of the series in Kansas City due to the rainout, but the White Sox moved him back to the series finale, which means that rather than missing him in the first two series the teams played, he’ll start each of the last two games between the two teams. After a 9-0 start, Sale has dropped his last two decisions with the White Sox losing his last three starts. He’s still awesome, but at least he seems beatable. Of course, you may have heard that the Royals have scored just four runs in their last six games, so the task of beating one of baseball’s best seems even taller than usual. His ERA has risen by almost a run in his last three starts, though, which is encouraging, if only a little. We all know the Royals have hit Sale reasonably well throughout his career, but he has good results nonetheless. He has just a 7-9 record, but with a 2.82 ERA in 27 games (16 starts) spanning 124.1 innings pitched. He went seven innings in his last start against the Royals and gave up two runs.

Three things to watch for against Sale:

1. I mentioned in the last preview that his velocity is down considerably this year. He’s averaging 93-94 MPH on his fastball this year after averaging a full two miles per hour faster last season. He continues to say it’s by design, but it’s something worth monitoring. He also throws a good sinker at about 92 MPH, a solid changeup, and a devastating slider. When batters have had success, they’ve had it on the fastball, but success is a loose term when it comes to what he’s done this season. A .221 average and .386 SLG on the heater is just better than hitters have done against his other pitches.
2. A big key for the Royals will be getting the leadoff man on against him. I know that’s true against any pitcher, but Sale has allowed just 14 leadoff men to reach in any of the 88 innings he’s begun this season. That’s impressive. It’s not that he’s easier to hit or anything with men on base, but the numbers do show a bit of a jump from .196/.227/.286 with the bases empty to .212/.306/.341 with runners on base. It’s hard to imagine the Royals get the leadoff man on in the first, but maybe in other innings.
3. Sale has been superhuman against all batters, but even more so against lefties, which shouldn’t be a surprise. He’s allowed a .422 OPS to them compared with .573 against righties. With no Alex Gordon or Mike Moustakas, that could bode well for them, but Gordon’s replacements are almost exclusively lefties. Lorenzo Cain, Kendrys Morales, Alcides Escobar and Paulo Orlando all have had some success against Sale and all have home runs against him, so there’s at least some history on the Royals side.

Ian Kennedy has been solid for the Royals, but I have to say there’s been some disappointing things as well. For one, he hasn’t provided the innings I was expecting. Eating innings was one of his main draws, but he’s averaging less than six innings per start. Now, I’ll say that he would likely be averaging more than six per start if not for the weird rain delay in Minneapolis, but that still happened. He got hit hard in Cleveland in his last start, but he had a 2.40 ERA in his previous three. His fly ball tendencies don’t seem like a good match for pitching on the South Side. He’s actually faced the White Sox just once, in 2014, and went six innings, giving up one run on four hits with nine strikeouts in a victory. Cabrera has hit him pretty well in his career, but he’s held down pretty much everyone else who he’s faced more than a couple times.

Weather Forecast

First Pitch Temperature: 87° F
Wind: SW at 6-12 mph, gusting to 18 mph
Cloud Cover: Mostly Sunny/Clear
Precipitation: 0%

Game 2, Saturday: Danny Duffy vs. Jose Quintana

It wouldn’t be Royals vs. White Sox without Quintana making a start. He’s been fantastic this season, but has continued to not be able to rack up the wins. Yes, it’s a stat that is incredibly flawed, but it’s still weird that a guy with a 3.38 ERA and 118 ERA+ has never once won double digit games in his career. It says a ton about his team, obviously, but it’s an interesting footnote. This year, he’s striking out more guys than ever, while doing an amazing job of limiting the long ball as well. He got hit hard by Detroit in his last start, but he’s been in a bit of a tailspin over his last four. He’s gone 0-4 with a 4.88 ERA in those starts, so hopefully he doesn’t regain his mojo in this one. The safe bet is that he will, even though the Royals have fared well against him throughout his career. He’s just 1-7 with a 4.34 ERA in 19 career starts against the Royals. That includes a loss this year when he went 6.1 innings and gave up four runs.

Three things to watch for against Quintana:

1. Unlike Sale, Quintana’s velocity continues to be on the rise. This year, he’s averaging nearly 93 MPH with both his fastball and his sinker. He’s also been turning to his sinker a lot more this season, which might be a reason for the decrease in home run rate. He throws a changeup here and there, but his curve is his moneymaker. It’s not as much of a strikeout pitch as it is a weak contact pitch, but he does get his share of strikeouts from it. Overall, opponents are hitting .170 with a .237 slugging percentage against it.
2. Quintana is efficient with his pitches, but you can get to him deeper into the game. He hasn’t yet faced a lineup a fourth time this year, but he does have his worst numbers the third time through, which isn’t surprising. And even beyond that, from pitch 76-100, Quintana allows a .313/.362/.438 line. It’s hard to be patient with a guy like him, but if the offense is patient, good things can happen.
3. Like Sale, Quintana has been death to lefties, allowing a .197/.208/.268 line compared to .257/.313/.360 against right-handed bats. I wonder if the Royals will utilize Whit Merrifield in the outfield with Christian Colon at second base in either of these first two games to get more righties in there. Orlando has raked against Quintana in 13 plate appearances while Salvador Perez has crushed him in 51 plate appearances. Cain has hit well, Morales has a homer and Eric Hosmer has two even though he hasn’t hit Quintana very well.

What can you say about Duffy? He’s been so good in his return to the rotation and so efficient, which is the most surprising thing about it all. Maybe it’s the seven-game losing streak talking, but I feel like he’s due for a clunker at some point, but it’s hard to argue with how he’s been pitching. Since his return to the rotation, he’s gone 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA and in his last three starts has pitched into the sixth inning or farther in all three. And that’s with a pitch count for two of them. The restrictors appear to be off now, though, so maybe he can finally break through and pitch seven or more. He’s 3-2 with a 3.81 ERA in 13 games (11 starts) against the White Sox in his career, but is actually 2-1 with a 1.55 ERA in eight games (six starts) in Chicago. Navarro, Saladino, Frazier, Abreu and Jackson have all hurt him, so it’ll be interesting to see how he fares. Remember, he retired the first 16 batters he faced earlier this year against the White Sox before giving up five runs to the next five batters. He’s got his pitch count up now, though, so hopefully that won’t happen again.

Weather Forecast

First Pitch Temperature: 92° F
Wind: WSW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph
Cloud Cover: Mostly Sunny
Precipitation: 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Game 3, Sunday: Yordano Ventura vs. Carlos Rodon

After days of consternation, the White Sox have chosen Rodon to start the series finale against the Royals. Apparently his neck discomfort has subsided enough that he’s able to go, but it’ll be interesting to see how he handles things in this one and if he can even get deep into the game. He’s had a really up and down season, but the talent is obviously still there. His strikeout rate has dropped some from last season, but he has reduced his walks, so that’s a positive for Rodon if he’s looking for something in a rough season. Rodon has faced the Royals twice this year and in his career, going 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA. The Royals have gotten 14 hits off him in 11.2 innings, so he hasn’t fooled them.

Three things to watch for against Rodon:

1. Rodon throws a fastball/sinker combination that both come in around 93-94 MPH and both can be really, really good pitches. The fastball, though, has been absolutely rocked this season. He also throws a slider that is legitimately fantastic and a curve that is decent enough, but he doesn’t throw it much.
2. In his career, Rodon has actually been easiest to hit early in the games. It’s not that he doesn’t struggle late, but he’s just been at his worst early.
3. Rodon has been lethal on lefties and has been hit pretty hard to right-handed batters.

Ventura’s last start was quite the adventure. As you may recall, he was shelled in the first and needed help from his defense to rob a home run to make it a little less terrible. Then he settled down a bit before hitting Manny Machado with a pitch that set off a brawl that ended with him tackling Machado and ultimately receiving a nine-game suspension. We can deal with the brawl and all that stuff later. Ventura hasn’t been very good all year, but especially lately. He has a 6.91 ERA in his last eight starts with 23 strikeouts and 21 walks. I guess he’s stopped walking guys, so that’s something, but man has he been bad. He’s 2-3 with a 4.79 ERA in eight career starts against the White Sox, and he’s 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA in two starts this year. He started the game in Kansas City that saw the Royals come back from six runs down in the bottom of the ninth. It’s easy to forget how bad he was in that one because of the drama at the end. Frazier and Abreu have hit him hard, but he’s actually done a pretty good job of holding down the rest of the White Sox in his career.

Weather Forecast

First Pitch Temperature: 68° F
Wind: NE at 5-10 mph, gusting to 15 mph
Cloud Cover: Mostly Sunny
Precipitation: 0%

The Prediction

Pain? I don’t know. This team is going so poorly right now that I just can’t imagine them even winning a game. That said, I do think they break through and find some more success against the White Sox. I’ll say the win one, but you have to know that I feel like that’s a stretch.