Series Preview: Royals vs. Detroit Tigers, June 16-19

The Royals continue their homestand against another division rival and the most recent team not named the Royals to win the American League Central, the Detroit Tigers. After looking like they might fall out of the race for a second straight season, the Tigers have righted the ship and have come back from six games under .500 to get back to above .500 and be within shouting distance of the top of the division. They’re now two games behind the Royals and Indians, so the Royals have an opportunity to put some big time space between themselves and the Tigers.

This is the second time the two teams have played with the Royals taking two of three in Kansas City back in April. The Royals won 10 of 19 against Detroit last season.

Tigers Offense

This is their strength, though they’re not a top to bottom powerhouse. That doesn’t mean they aren’t extremely difficult to face. The really good hitters in their lineup are all really good. Ian Kinsler is in the midst of the best year of his career, and if the Tigers make some noise in the playoff race, he’ll be a trendy MVP candidate. Miguel Cabrera isn’t having one of his typical season and he’s still one of the best overall hitters in the league. And Victor Martinez has rebounded from a terrible year last year to basically go back to being himself. He has been nursing a knee injury (I know, shocking), so that may hinder him for a bit.

I haven’t even mentioned J.D. Martinez or Nick Castellanos, which speaks to the depth of the Tigers lineup. J.D. Martinez hasn’t really stopped hitting since he started, and this year is no different. Castellanos started the year on absolute fire and has cooled off since, but his overall numbers are still really, really good. I also haven’t mentioned Cameron Maybin, who came off the DL after missing the start of the season and added quite the element to the Tigers lineup. He’s been hitting near the top of the order behind Kinsler for the most part lately. That duo has been outstanding. I’m not sold on Maybin’s ability to keep this up, though, so regression seems pretty likely.

But then you get into the struggles. Justin Upton was supposed to be another big power bat behind the guys already in place and he has absolutely flopped in his first year in Detroit with just four home runs and a sub-.300 on base percentage. Jose Iglesias looked last year like he might be able to carry a solid average to make him average or so offensively, but that has not continued this season. And James McCann has been an abomination offensively behind the plate after a solid year last year. The Tigers have relied on Jarrod Saltalamacchia far more than they’d have liked to, but even he has slowed down considerably after a scalding hot start. The rest of the bench consists of former Royal Mike Aviles and Andrew Romine, neither of whom is much with the bat.

Tigers Pitching

This starting staff is a far cry from what they ran out there a couple years that looked so daunting, but it still has its good points. Justin Verlander has largely been very good this season. He’s not old Verlander, but he’s not as far off as his ERA might suggest. Jordan Zimmermann was a very good signing for the Tigers, though he has regressed after an impossibly hot start to his season. They’ve had to move Anibal Sanchez to the bullpen because he was so bad in the rotation, and they’re making do with Mike Pelfrey, Michael Fulmer and Matt Boyd. I say making do, but that’s a huge understatement for Fulmer, who has been absolutely outstanding in his first nine big league starts. There’s some regression likely coming, but it’s hard not to like what he’s given the Tigers. Pelfrey has basically been Pelfrey, so no surprises there. And Matt Boyd is a guy who seems to have the ability to be a good pitcher, but he just hasn’t harnessed that yet.

The Tigers bullpen isn’t as bad as has been, but it’s also not exactly a shutdown unit. Francisco Rodriguez is closing games for them and he’s been good enough. He still strikes hitters out and doesn’t walk that many, but you’d like a little more consistency from that role. Alex Wilson hasn’t followed up his very good 2015 very well, but relievers are volatile, so he could turn it around any minute. Tyler Wilson has been okay as a lefty out there. Mark Lowe was a big free agent acquisition for them, and he’s been absolutely horrible. He got a two-year deal, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if he doesn’t make it to the end of year one. The rest of the bullpen is filled with Sanchez, Shane Greene who probably serves better as a reliever, Buck Farmer and Blaine Hardy, a product of the Royals farm system. Their bullpen has been worse. That’s for sure.

Game 1, Thursday: Danny Duffy vs. Justin Verlander

I mentioned that Verlander has been better this year. The 3.77 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story. His strikeout rate is back up over a strikeout per inning, which is actually something he hasn’t done since 2009. He’s still walking just 2.5 per nine, so that’s not bad either. Oh, and he’s giving up the fewest hits per inning since his Cy Young year in 2011. He’s just sort of getting it done in a different way, but none of it seems especially fluky . He isn’t stranding an inordinate amount of runners or allowing a miniscule BABIP (though it is slightly low). He’s just pitching really well, which is not what we as Royals fans wanted to hear this season. In his career against the Royals, Verlander is 20-8 with a 3.21 ERA in 38 starts spanning 258 innings. From 2012 through the last time he faced the Royals, Verlander is just 6-6 with a 3.96 ERA in 19 starts, so things have changed a bit.

Three things to watch for against Verlander:

1. No, the straight gas isn’t there anymore for Verlander, but it’s not like he’s become Chris Young or anything. While he’s not throwing 96 MPH as he did earlier in his career, his fastball averages between 93 and 94 MPH, which is still quite good, and he gets plenty of movement on it. He also throws it just under 60 percent of the time. It’s really kind of a hodge podge of other pitches to round out his repertoire as he throws a curve, change, cutter and slider in various situations. All are very good, though. When he’s been hit, he’s been hit on the fastball. It’s been the culprit for nine of the 10 home runs he’s allowed this season.
2. The trademark for Verlander used to be his ability to get better as the game went on. He was the horsiest of horses for the Tigers. That’s not quite as accurate anymore as he’s kind of become human in that regard. Like many great pitchers, you can get to him early, as evidenced by his 6.23 first inning ERA. But what’s different about Verlander 2.0 is that you can get to him late. The third time through the order, he allows a .277/.307/.489 line and has allowed half his home runs when seeing a lineup a third time.
3. He’s actually had a pretty big reverse platoon split this season, allowing a .594 OPS to lefties compared with a .681 OPS to righties. He’s had a small reverse platoon split throughout his career, but this is taking it to a new level. With Billy Butler gone, the Royals will have to rely on Salvador Perez and his .477/.457/.773 line against Verlander in 46 plate appearances to get the job done. Kendrys Morales also has a 1.000 OPS against him in 34 plate appearances with a couple homers. Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and even Omar Infante have a home run against Verlander as well. The Royals have actually hit him pretty decently.

There was a time when Jim Leyland, then Tigers manager, compared Duffy to Verlander, which I thought was an interesting comparison because you don’t typically see righties compared to lefties and vice versa. But it kind of makes sense given their use of the fastball and the velocity they can get with it. Still, Duffy is no Verlander, though he has been pretty outstanding since returning to the rotation. He’s gone 2-1 with a 2.90 ERA in six starts and is averaging better than five innings per start even though he was on a pretty strict pitch count for the first three starts he made. The most amazing thing is that he’s throwing less than 14 pitches per inning, which is very un-Duffy like. He’s fared pretty well against the Tigers in the past, going 3-6 with a 3.09 ERA in 14 games (11 starts) in his career. From 2013 to 2015, Duffy went 3-3 with a 1.59 ERA against them, mostly as a starter, so he knows how to handle this lineup. Iglesias has hit him well in eight plate appearances and Cabrera has, of course, done well against him, but he’s done a nice job against the rest of the team.

The Forecast

Game 2, Friday: Yordano Ventura vs. Michael Fulmer

The Tigers acquired Fulmer in the deal that sent Yoenis Cespedes to New York, so I’d say they’re pretty happy with how that turned out. He’s gone 7-1 with a 2.52 ERA in his first nine big league starts with really solid peripherals. There will likely be a little regression in him, but a guy who strikes out nearly a batter per inning and limits hits like he does is pretty solid in my book. He does have a very high strand rate and a slightly low BABIP, so that’s why I think many believe he’ll be more of a mid-3 ERA type pitcher rather than where he is now, but that’s still very good. He was ranked as one of the top 100 prospects by pretty much all prospect ranking organizations prior to the season, so this isn’t that big of a surprise, I don’t think. He’s obviously never faced the Royals.

Three things to watch for against Fulmer:

1. He throws hard, averaging about 96 MPH on his fastball that he throws roughly one-third of the time. He also throws a sinker a little more than 25 percent of the time that averages just a touch under that 96 MPH number, and it helps him get a fair amount of grounders. The sinker has been his least effective pitch, though, so Royals hitters should be on the lookout for it. His slider has been nasty this year, and he’s thrown it quite a bit and gotten quite a few strikeouts on it. And then there’s a changeup, which I think is a little underrated by some. It’s a quality pitch.
2. Like Verlander, you can get to him if you can turn the lineup over a third time in a timely fashion because he does struggle a bit with that at this point in his career. He’s also struggled a little in the first inning, allowing seven runs in nine games. One stat that stands out to me a little is that he’s allowed a .564 OPS with nobody on and a .741 OPS with runners on base. But then that number drops again to .575 with runners in scoring position. He’s a tough one.
3. Also like Verlander, Fulmer has a pretty significant reverse platoon split, allowing a .533 OPS to lefties compared with .698 for righties. That’s always interesting to me. No Royals have ever faced him, obviously, but it helps that the lineup skews a bit right-handed these days.

Ventura may not actually get to make this start, depending on when his appeal is heard for his suspension, but for now, he’s the guy. He was brilliant his last time out, holding the White Sox to just one run over seven innings with 10 strikeouts and just one walk. When he pitches like that, you wonder how he can ever pitch as poorly as he does sometimes. Maybe the brawl and subsequent suspension will ultimately be what got Ventura back on track. Hopefully that’s the case because if the Royals want to really make some noise both in the regular season and the postseason, they’re going to need Ventura to step forward or make room for someone who will.

Ventura has had success against Detroit, going 5-0 with a 3.82 ERA in seven games (six starts) in his career. He threw five innings against them earlier this year, giving up two runs on six hits while striking out three and walking two. Both Martinezes and Kinsler has hit him well, but aside from a few guys having only faced him a couple times, he’s fared pretty well against the others in the lineup.

The Forecast

First Pitch Temperature: 92 F (Heat Index: 98 F)
Wind: E at 5-10 mph
Cloud Cover: Mostly Sunny/Clear
Precipitation: 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms

Game 3, Saturday: Edinson Volquez vs. Matt Boyd

The Tigers picked up Boyd in part of the deal that sent David Price to the Blue Jays. In the minors, Boyd looked really good. He posted a 1.10 ERA in AA, which earned him a promotion to AAA where he posted a 2.77 ERA in six starts before making one short start for the Toledo Mudhens before coming up to the big leagues. Then he was horrible. He’s the proud owner of a career 6.72 ERA, which has been brought down significantly by his 4.91 ERA to start 2016 in his five games pitched. He still walks too many, but he’s limited hits better this year at least. He’s amazingly made four starts against the Royals in his career, going 1-1 with a 5.59 ERA in 19.1 innings pitched. Yes, that’s one-fourth of his career starts against one team. The unbalanced schedule strikes again.

Three things to watch for against Boyd:

1. Boyd throws a decent fastball about half the time. It comes in at an average of around 92 MPH, but it’s been absolutely destroyed in his career. He’s allowed 22 homers in his career and 14 of them have come off the fastball. So if you’re looking for what pitch to sit on, that’s the one. He also throws a changeup, slider, sinker and a curve. The slider is pretty decent, but none of the rest are worth much of anything.
2. When Boyd is behind in the count, hitters can just tee off. They have a .337/.504/.826 line against him in those situations in his career. He also has a 10.50 ERA away from home in eight games with 13 homers allowed in 30 innings. He allows a .813 OPS the first time through an order, 1.179 the second time through and .758 the third time through. Basically what I’m saying here is that if the Royals don’t hit him, it won’t be because Boyd pitched a great game, no matter what you hear in the postgame presser.
3. And here’s yet another reverse platoon split in the Tigers rotation. Boyd has allowed a 1.056 OPS to lefties compared to “just” .865 to righties in his career. Neither is good, but that line to lefties is astonishingly bad. Cain and Morales have homers against him while they’re joined by Hosmer among Royals who have hit him well in obviously limited exposure.

Volquez looked like he got back on track on Monday against the Indians. After a 28-pitch first inning, he settled down and was able to throw seven innings without too many issues and probably could have gone eight if Ned Yost had chosen to push him. He’s still averaging better than six innings per start, which is a great thing for this rotation, and if that last start is any indication; maybe he’s getting back on track now. He amazingly has a 2.06 ERA at home compared with 6.82 on the road. Luckily this one is at home.

He still has a 5.04 ERA in his last 10 starts, but you feel better about him after his last game. He is just 2-4 with a 5.24 ERA in eight career starts against the Tigers, which includes a 6.55 ERA against them last year in four starts. Of course, this year, he went seven shutout innings against them in April and got the win. Cabrera, Upton and Castellanos have all hit him well, but he’s amazingly held down both of the Martinez boys really well.

The Forecast

First Pitch Temperature: 92 F (Heat Index: 96 F)
Wind: ESE at 5-10 mph
Cloud Cover: Mostly Sunny/Clear
Precipitation: 0%

Game 4, Sunday: Chris Young vs. Jordan Zimmermann

When Zimmermann had a 9.55 ERA at the end of a 5-0 April, he looked like he might have been the best free agent signing in the history of baseball. Now it merely looks like the Tigers got a good pitcher for their money, which is certainly okay. Since that ridiculous start to his Tigers career, he hasn’t been especially good, going 4-3 with a 5.60 ERA in seven starts. He’s still giving plenty of innings, but he’s just getting hit around pretty well and with some power, so maybe he won’t be quite as tough on the Royals as he was in his first start against them when he went 6.1 shutout innings and struck out eight while walking just one. Of course, he was almost as good in his first career start against the Royals back in 2013, going 7.2 innings and giving up just two runs.

Three things to watch for against Zimmermann:

1. He loads up on fastballs, throwing it more than half the time at an average velocity of 92-93 MPH, which is good but it represents a drop of about a mile per hour from last season and a full two MPH from two years ago, so that’s something to keep in mind. He also throws his slider about 31 percent of the time, and it’s a really good one when it’s on, but I’ve seen it flatten out and look really hittable. There’s a curve and a very occasional changeup as well. His fastball has been getting hit lately, so the Royals need to make sure that continues.
2. Zimmermann throws a lot of strikes and he starts out a lot of at bats with a strike, so first pitch swinging isn’t that bad of an idea against him. On at bats that end on the first pitch, opponents are hitting .417 with a .583 SLG against him. On at bats where the batter just swings at the first pitch, whether it ends there or not, opponents are hitting .326 with a .461 SLG against him. He can be beat early in the count. The downside to this strategy is that if you don’t get hits, you’re stuck facing him deep into the game because his pitch count hasn’t gone anywhere.
3. Something must be in the water in Detroit. Zimmermann also has a reverse platoon split this year, and it’s a huge gap. He’s allowed a .614 OPS to lefties and a .772 OPS to righties. In his career, the numbers aren’t even close to that, so I don’t know what is going on there. Perez has a double and a walk against him and Ian Kennedy has a double against him in his career, but that’s about it as far as Royals players hitting him well. And I don’t think Kennedy is getting in the box in this one.

Young will look to build on an okay enough start on Tuesday against the Indians. He couldn’t make it through five, but he did only allow the one home run and only let in one run himself that Dillon Gee allowed to score. He’s still fighting for his rotation life, though, as he just hasn’t been very good this season. Of course, like Volquez, he’s been a totally different pitcher at home with a 3.00 ERA in six games (four starts) compared to 9.70 on the road. Yikes. His home run ways don’t look like a good matchup for a team that has guys who can make you pay, but I guess we’ll see how it goes.

Young is actually 4-0 with a 1.71 ERA in nine games (six starts) against the Tigers in his career. He went 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA against them in seven games (four starts) the last two seasons, but he hasn’t faced them yet this year. Saltalamacchia has homered off him, as has Victor Martinez and Upton has hit him pretty well, but he’s handled the rest of the lineup pretty well.

The Forecast

First Pitch Temperature: 90 F (Heat Index: 93 F)
Wind: S at 5-10 mph
Cloud Cover: Sunny
Precipitation: 0%

The Prediction

Four gamers are tough. It’s just so hard to even win three out of four, and I really don’t like the matchup in the finale. I think the Royals take two of the first three and then have some trouble in that last one with Young on the mound against Zimmermann and end up with a series split, which will be sort of disappointing, but still mark a solid homestand.