Series Preview: Royals at Toronto Blue Jays, July 4-6

The Royals find their way back to the American League to take on their most recent American League playoff victim, the Toronto Blue Jays. You may recall that the two teams met in the ALCS and the Royals won that series, four games to two. This year, the Blue Jays are a little like the Royals in that they’re hovering above .500 and seem to always be at least within shouting distance of a playoff spot, if not in place for one. Last year in the regular season, the Royals took two of three in Kansas City from the Blue Jays and lost three of four in Toronto. That series in Toronto came right around the deadline when the Blue Jays had just made a couple big acquisitions, so they were riding high.

Blue Jays Offense

Yeah, they can still hit, but they’re not having the same type of year they were last season. Jose Bautista is on the disabled list and will be through the All-Star break, it appears. Their best player remains Josh Donaldson, who is having another just fantastic season. The usual Edwin Encarnacion season is occurring with a ton of homers and a ton of runs batted in. The surprise among the key offensive contributors for the Blue Jays is Michael Saunders, who does strike out a ton, but he’s also been so good this season, which has helped a lot to balance out the lineup with his lefty bat. The’re still getting homers from Troy Tulowitzki, but he just isn’t performing like he did in his days with the Rockies and really hasn’t since they traded for him.

One of their other big money players struggling is Russell Martin. He just can’t seem to get it going this season for them. Kevin Pillar has continued to play outstanding defense, but his offense just hasn’t been there for the Blue Jays. Justin Smoak has been just okay too. He can hit a few homers, but he hasn’t been able to do much else. Amazingly, one of the players who has really stepped up in Bautista’s absence is Eqequiel Carrera. There isn’t much power there, but the guy can get on base and he can run. It’s a different element for the Blue Jays. Devon Travis has been pretty decent since coming back from injury as well.

The bench is pretty decent at times, though they suffered a loss with Ryan Goins going on the disabled list after pitching on Friday during the 19-inning game they played. Darwin Barney has been really solid for the Blue Jays off the bench while Josh Thole and Junior Lake round things out.

Blue Jays Pitching

I didn’t think the Blue Jays starting rotation would be good enough, but they’ve had a lot of really nice performances this year. One of them has not come from the guy who I thought would be good, Marcus Stroman. He’s really struggled this year, which has been a big surprise to me. Marco Estrada and Aaron Sanchez, though, have been really, really good this year. Estrada continues to do what he had done last season while Sanchez moved from the bullpen to the rotation and has been everything they hoped he would be and more. A surprising three-year deal for J.A. Happ has gone pretty well for them so far this season, though he’s faltered a bit lately. And then R.A. Dickey has basically been the perfect back of the rotation starter.

The bullpen, though, has had its struggles. Roberta Osuna has shown that last season wasn’t a fluke and that he’s a legitimately really good closer. He strikes hitters, doesn’t walk them and doesn’t give up hits. Newly acquired Jason Grilli has been really solid for them since coming over as well, but they’ve gotten uneven performances from just about everyone else. Jesse Chavez has been just okay for them after coming over in a trade in the offseason. Drew Storen has been basically a disaster, and that’s definitely not what they were expecting from him. Joe Biagini has been okay, but Brett Cecil hasn’t been good at all. Drew Hutchison and Aaron Loup round out the Blue Jays bullpen right now, and neither one should worry opposing offense.

Game 1, Monday: Edinson Volquez vs. Aaron Sanchez

Sanchez was one of the Blue Jays top prospects before his debut in 2014 when he was dominant as a reliever. He was always a starter in the minors, though, so he entered the 2015 season in the rotation but when they needed the bullpen, that’s where he went and he was fantastic again. With reinforcements acquired in the offseason, the Blue Jays decided Sanchez would get another shot to start and he’s been excellent this year, with a record of 8-1 and an ERA of 3.08. He’s striking hitters and limiting walks well enough. There’s some talk that the Blue Jays might shift him back to the bullpen at some point this year to save innings, but he’s been really good. He’s faced the Royals in three relief appearances, going 2.2 innings and giving up a run in his career.

Three things to watch for against Sanchez:

1. He relies heavily on a sinker and gets a ton of grounders because of it. He throws that pitch more than half the time and averages between 95 and 96 MPH with it. He also throws a four-seam fastball about 20 percent of the time at a similar velocity. You have a pretty good idea when facing Sanchez that it’s going to be a lot of hard stuff. He also throws a changeup and a curve to keep hitters honest, and both have been really good this year. Really, the only pitch he’s struggled with even a little is the fastball.
2. One thing about Sanchez is that he rarely gets beat on the first pitch of an at bat, which kind of takes the power the Royals have away. Opponents are hitting just .235 on the first pitch with a .373 slugging percentage. He throws strikes, but starting hitters off with the sinker leads to some weak contact on that first pitch.
3. Sanchez has a pretty traditional split, holding right-handed bats to a .607 OPS compared to .705 against lefties. Among Royals hitters who have faced Sanchez, only Alcides Escobar has a hit, but the sample is very small. I actually kind of like the Royals left-handed bats’ chances against him.

Volquez had one of the worst starts in the history of baseball against the Astros, and then came out and was fantastic against the Cardinals in St. Louis. Now, he faces the team he handled okay in the postseason but on their turf. It’s been sort of an odd year for him, and he’s been so much better for most of the year at home, but his last two bad starts were at Kauffman Stadium and he was great in St. Louis, so who knows? We all know pitching in Toronto can be tough, so hopefully Volquez keeps up what he did in his last start. He is 0-4 with a 6.46 ERA in six career regular season starts against the Blue Jays, but did go 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two ALCS starts. Of all people, Barney has destroyed Volquez in 15 at bats in his career. Encarnacion has a homer off him, but there isn’t really a ton of damage against Volquez by Blue Jays hitters.

The Forecast

First Pitch Temperature: 76° F
Wind: SE at 4-8 mph
Cloud Cover: Mostly Sunny/Clear
Precipitation: 0%

Game 2, Tuesday: Chris Young vs. R.A. Dickey

We all know Dickey’s story at this point, and as his career enters the twilight period, he’s turned himself into a very serviceable back of the rotation guy, similar to how Tim Wakefield was toward the end of his career. He’s not going to wow you, but he’ll give you good games and he’ll give you innings, which is pretty important. Dickey hasn’t performed for the Blue Jays like he did for the Mets, but he’s given a few strikeouts, less walks than you’d probably expect and quite a few home runs allowed. Of course, his opponent thinks he’s been pretty stingy this season. Dickey has faced the Royals 14 times in the regular season with eight of them starts and gone 4-3 with a 4.20 ERA. In the postseason, he didn’t make it through two innings against the Royals when he was rocked in game four of the ALCS last year.

Three things to watch for against Dickey:

1. You know what he throws. Just under 90 percent of the time, Dickey is coming at hitters with a knuckleball that’s a little harder than the one Royals fans got used to seeing from Wakefield all those years ago. Steven Wright throws a similar velocity to Dickey, and the Royals did moderately okay against him earlier this year. Dickey also throws a fastball/sinker-esque pitch a little bit and both have been crushed when he does throw them.
2. The knuckleball is pretty easy on the arm, so he doesn’t necessarily tire like a traditional pitcher would, but he has struggled quite a bit at home this season, which is where this game will take place. He has 3.35 ERA in nine starts at home compared to a 5.14 ERA in eight starts at home. As I say every time the Royals face a knuckleball pitcher, just be prepared to hear the phrase, “If it’s high, let it fly; if it’s low, let it go” when trying to talk about how to hit one.
3. While some switch hitters take to hitting from the same side of the plate as their knuckleball counterparts, they shouldn’t do that with Dickey who has been far worse against lefties than righties this season. Salvador Perez and Kendrys Morales have homers against him in their careers while Eric Hosmer and Alcides Escobar have hit him pretty well in their careers in pretty limited time.

Chris Young probably continues to pitch for his rotation life. He was okay enough against the Cardinals on Thursday, but walked too many and he gave up his token home run for the outing. Him pitching in Toronto has me really worried given his huge issues with the home run ball, but at this point, there aren’t too many options out there other than Kris Medlen. I still think there’s a slight chance Medlen ends up making this start, but he struggled in his last rehab start as well. Young did give up two runs in 4.2 innings in that same game four that Dickey struggled in the ALCS, but in his career, he’s 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA in four starts against Toronto. Among current Blue Jays, only Encarnacion has homered against him. Really, the majority have struggled against Young.

The Forecast

First Pitch Temperature: 79° F
Wind: WSW at 5-10 mph
Cloud Cover: Partly Sunny/Clear
Precipitation: 0%

Game 3, Wednesday: Ian Kennedy vs. Marcus Stroman

I mentioned Stroman in the introduction, and I think the Blue Jays and him both are a little surprised by what he’s done this year. Remember, he came back from what was thought to be a season-ending injury to pitch in September and the postseason and was very good. His control has been fine this year, but not as good as we’ve seen from him in his first few starts of his career, and he still has struggled to get the strikeout like you’d expect from someone with his stuff. This year, he’s added the wrinkle of giving up more hits. Add it all up, and it’s a recipe for a tough season to date. He’ll always have good memories of the Royals as they were the team he made his first big league start against. That’s his only regular season start against the Royals, and he gave up a run over six innings. In the ALCS, the Royals scored four in 6.1 innings and picked up 11 hits.

Three things to watch for against Stroman:

1. Like Sanchez, Stroman gets a lot of ground balls from relying very heavily on a sinker that he throws more than half the time. He doesn’t throw as hard as Sanchez, though, averaging a bit under 93 MPH on his. He also has a slider, a good curve, a cutter and a changeup. The sinker has been hit for average, but not a ton of power. He does throw the occasional four-seamer, and that’s been hit pretty hard this season.
2. a big reason for Stroman’s troubles is that he’s having a lot of problems with men on base, which is leaving his strand rate pretty low. He’s allowed a .246/.288/.391 line with nobody on, which is pretty darn good. But with runners on, he’s allowed a .324/.393/.482 line and with runners in scoring position, it gets worse, allowing a .351/.439/.495 line.
3. He’s allowed a .707 OPS to righties and a .808 OPS to lefties, so that’s a pretty normal platoon split, but each OPS is probably 100 points higher than you’d like to see from the guy who is supposed to be their ace. Morales is 4 for 5 against him, Escobar is 3 for 7 with a triple and Alex Gordon has hit him well too. All of it is obviously in a limited sample, but it’s encouraging that Royals hitters have seen him well.

Kennedy in Toronto seems like it might be a disaster waiting to happen. He was coming off a great start at home against the Astros but gave up three runs in five innings against the Phillies in his last start, and he continues to have road troubles and troubles with the home run in general (though that’s true of most Royals pitchers). The way the Blue Jays can handle a fastball, I have some very real worries about this game. He’s faced the Blue Jays once in his career, back in 2007. He gave up just a run over seven innings, but I’m going to go ahead and make the call that the results of that aren’t all that important today. Tulowitzki has been a monster against Kennedy, and Lake has actually hit him well in very limited plate appearances, but he hasn’t seen many Blue Jays hitters in his career.

The Forecast

First Pitch Temperature: 81° F
Wind: SSW at 8-12 mph
Cloud Cover: Mostly Sunny/Clear
Precipitation: 0%

The Prediction

I don’t like this matchup and I don’t like this series. I’m half tempted to predict a Blue Jays sweep, but I do think the Royals find a way to get one of the three and somewhat salvage the series.