Series Preview: Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, July 25-27

The Royals wrap up a disappointing homestand with a three game set against the last place Angels. If you want to know what a truly underwhelming team looks like, the Angels would be a much better place to look than the Royals. They have arguably the game’s best player and a payroll running close to the luxury tax threshold. This is a team with the money to fix their problems, but not the prospect collateral, so they’re either going to need to spend that money or make some trades to rebuild the farm system and overhaul the big league team. It’s not an enviable position. Of course, you may recall the Royals were swept by this team in April, back when there were still high hopes for the season.

Angels Offense

It all begins with Mike Trout. It seems like every year, people (myself included) try to turn someone else into the best player in baseball, but it pretty much always seems to come back to Trout. This year, Trout has dropped his strikeouts a little bit, so he might be even better than he has been before. It’s very impressive. In addition to Trout, they’re getting great production from Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols and Yunel Escobar. C.J. Cron was having a nice season before he broke his hand and will now miss some significant time.

Here’s a look at how Angels hitters have fared over the last month or so:

Angels Pitching

The issue with the Angels pitching staff is that their starters aren’t very good and neither are their relievers. That’s a slight problem, I guess. They’re really missing Garrett Richards who only made six starts before his season ended. They’re also now missing Nick Tropeano, who had been one of their best pitchers before he went down with a tear in his UCL. So now they’ve relying on guys like Tim Lincecum and Jhoulys Chacin, which isn’t exactly a great position to be in. Chacin is in the bullpen now, but he hasn’t been good since the Angels acquired him.

Here’s their current starters over the last month or so:

The issue in the bullpenhas been that Huston Street and Fernando Salas have been awful, while Joe Smith hasn’t been far behind. They were supposed to make up a decent bullpen, but it’s been rough for them.

Finally, here are their relievers over the last month:

Forecasts provided by Sensible Weather. For daily MLB weather forecasts, visit sensibleweather.com and follow along on Twitter (@SensibleWeather).

Game 1, Monday: Ian Kennedy vs. Hector Santiago

Santiago becoming a quality starter was kind of a surprising thing that happened. It was at least to me because I thought he would be a a reliever, and a pretty good one, but his stuff has played well in the rotation. Since getting lit up by the Indians about a month and a half ago, he’s been strong with a 5-0 record and 2.28 ERA in averaging more than six innings per start. One thing about Santiago that seems to likely always be a problem is the walks, which are just a bit too high. Still, he has very good stuff, and when he’s on, he’s tough to hit. The Royals also aren’t very good offensively. He’s 1-1 with a 1.70 ERA in 12 games (six starts) against the Royals in his career. He last faced the Royals last year and was 0-1 with a 3.65 ERA in two starts.

Three things to watch for against Santiago:

1. A big reason why I thought Santiago would just be a reliever is that he really relies on a fastball and a changeup. In fact, he throws those pitches about 83 percent of the time. The fastball is the most prevalent pitch, thrown more than 60 percent of the time at about 92 MPH. He also throws a slider, curve and cutter at varying velocities. The cutter has been hit hard this year, but he only throws it like five percent of the time.
2. Santiago has been mediocre or worse with nobody on base, allowing a .253/.331/.478 line in that situation. With men on, though, he seems to figure things out and has allowed a .201/.292/.321 line. With runners in scoring position, it’s even more daunting to opponents. He’s allowed a .167/.258/.231 line in that situation.
3. Santiago has a traditional platoon split. He’s allowed a .750 OPS to righties and a .678 to lefties. With Cheslor Cuthbert replacing Mike Moustakas, the Royals lean a little right-handed, which could help in this one. Kendrys Morales and Eric Hosmer have homers against Santiago and have both hit him well. Other than that, Alcides Escobar has the best OPS of any other Royals hitters against him at .665.

Kennedy is coming off a very rough start against the Indians where the home run ball bit him once again. He’s now tied Chris Young for the team lead. He now has the same ERA he had last season, but his ERA+ is actually 18 points higher, which is kind of interesting. He’s really had the strikeout pitch working over his last few starts, getting 48 over his last 38.1 innings pitched. If he can keep the ball in the park, that would be great. That’s a big if lately. He went six innings earlier this year against the Angels and gave up five runs in six innings. There were two homers hit in that one. Pujols has three homers in 10 at bats against him while Escobar has been really good against him too. Everyone else has struggled, though.

The Forecast

Game 2, Tuesday: Dillon Gee vs. Tyler Skaggs

Skaggs makes his return from Tommy John surgery and a shoulder setback in this one against the Royals. He showed some potential as a 22-year old in 2014 with a 4.30 ERA in 18 starts and really good peripherals. It was a blow to the Angels to lose him this year, but now he’s back and pitching really well, at least based on his rehab starts. In his last two starts, he’s gone 12.2 innings, allowed two hits and struck out 26 while walking just three. He had a 1.21 ERA in 29.2 total rehab innings, so he looks ready to go. Of course, you never know with this recovery, but things look good for him right now. Skaggs has never faced the Royals.

Three things to watch for against Skaggs:

1. Before the injury, Skaggs was a fastball/sinker guy. He relied on those pitches quite a bit, and both sat in the low-90s. He has a very good curve that he uses as an out pitch. It’s a slower curve, but not as slow as they saw from A.J. Griffin on Sunday against the Rangers. His fastball was hit reasonably hard, so that’s the pitch to sit on, which is also the pitch he’s thrown the most in the big leagues.
2. One thing to be on the lookout for with Skaggs is that while he’s thrown some quality innings on a rehab assignment, he is still coming back from major surgery and wasn’t an innings eater before it. Previously, he didn’t really struggle a third time through the order, but that’s definitely something to be looked at in this one. Getting through a big league lineup, even the Royals, might be a tough task for more than two times in his first start back.
3. He didn’t have a huge platoon split, but was better against lefties than righties before the injury. Again, the Royals right-handed bats could be helpful here. No Royals hitter has faced him in the big leagues.

Dillon Gee will get the nod in this one, which should inspire nobody. He’s actually given the Royals some really quality big league innings out of the bullpen, but as a starter, he’s left something to be desired, posting a 5.87 ERA in five starts. But still, it’s what the Royals have to work with right now, so it’ll be him. He’s made one start against the Angels in his career, in 2014, and went 5.2 innings while giving up four runs on six hits. He took the loss. Trout homered against him in that game, but the only Angels player he’s faced more than a handful of times is Simmons, and he’s held him down quite well, so there’s that to hang your hat on.

The Forecast

First Pitch Temperature: 86° F
Wind: E at 3-6 mph
Cloud Cover: Mostly Sunny/Clear
Precipitation: 0%

Game 3, Wednesday: Danny Duffy vs. Matt Shoemaker

You want to talk about a transformation? On April 30, Shoemaker had a 9.15 ERA and was sent to the minors. Since then, he has a 2.84 ERA in 14 starts with 99 strikeouts in 92 innings. Oh yeah, he’s only walked 13. He’s made one small change to rely heavily on his splitter, and the change has been magnificent. He’s gone from a guy who had a fantastic rookie year and looked like he was settling into a back-end starter/minor league guy to someone who could be a big part of a rotation for years to come. He’s 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA in three career starts against the Royals. He last faced them last year when he gave up six runs in 1.2 innings.

Three things to watch for against Shoemaker:

1. He throws that splitter quite a bit. It isn’t anything special velocity-wise, but it gets the job done. He also throws a four-seamer and a sinker, both in the low-90s. He adds in a slider and a very occasional curve. He’s allowed a .180 average and a .268 slugging percentage on that splitter. The fastball and sinker have been crushed, so hitters can look to that.
2. There’s a point for Shoemaker where, if he’s going to implode, it’s going to be in the middle of a game. He is great early, then in the second time through the order, often does get hit. I think it’s pretty easy to assume that if he gets past that, it’s because he’s pitching well and then he gets back to doing well the third time through the order.
3. Shoemaker is actually better against lefty bats than righty bats. His fastball and sinker are much better against lefties because of the movement, so he gets the job done better. Salvador Perez has crushed him and has a homer. Hosmer has also hit him very well. Even Escobar has three hits in seven at bats.

While Shoemaker is the Angels best pitcher, and it’s a bit of a surprise, the Royals will counter with Duffy, who fits the same description. Duffy has just been so good that I’m running out of things to say about him. I’ll just update the numbers. As a starter, Duffy is 6-1 with a 3.17 ERA in 13 starts. He’s thrown 76.2 innings and given up just 63 hits while striking out 84 and walking 15. Since losing the pitch limitations, he’s gone 6-1 with a 3.09 ERA in 64 innings over 10 starts with 71 strikeouts and 13 walks. This is for real. He’s 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in three games (two starts) in his career against the Angels. That Trout guy has homered off Duffy, but he’s held the rest of the lineup in check.

The Forecast

First Pitch Temperature: 88° F
Wind: SE at 4-8 mph
Cloud Cover: Partly Sunny/Clear
Precipitation: 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms

The Prediction

I think the Royals are the better team, and the Angels struggling starting staff could help the offense at least look good for a few days. Of course, I’ve thought that before and been disappointed. Still, I think they end up winning two of three this week and heading into the weekend believing they still have a shot.