Series Preview: Royals at Chicago White Sox, September 9-11

The Royals try to shake off a very tough loss to end their series with the Twins as they head to the south side to take on the Chicago White Sox in a three-game weekend set. While the White Sox don’t have a record as bad as the Twins, at times they’ve looked as bad as them or worse, so this is a series the Royals need badly, and they probably need a sweep after blowing the opportunity for that in Minneapolis. The White Sox aren’t a good team, but they’re capable of winning some games, so this won’t be a walk in the park. The Royals are 9-3 against Chicago this year, including 4-2 in Chicago.

White Sox Offense

This offense isn’t anything special, but they do have a couple guys who can hit the long ball, especially now that Jose Abreu is back on track. Since the start of August, he’s hitting .381/.421/.683 with 12 homers. That’s a lot of offense for a guy who looked like he might be continuing a decline from a great rookie season. That decline is no more. Between him and Todd Frazier, there’s some pop. There’s not a ton else in the lineup, but they can be dangerous on any given game.

White Sox Offense the Last Month:

White Sox Pitching

The rotation has two horses and some questions. Chris Sale and Jose Quintana are obviously fantastic pitchers, but beyond that, they have a young, inconsistent Carlos Rodon, a veteran Miguel Gonzalez and a deteriorating James Shields. Big Game James has a 7.50 ERA in 17 games with the White Sox with almost as many walks as strikeouts. I guess he actually is the best fifth starter option they have, though, which is kind of scary.

White Sox Starters the Last Month:

The White Sox bullpen has some pieces in it, but there isn’t a ton of depth. David Robertson has been up and down this year and is walking way too many batters, but Nate Jones and Dan Jennings have performed quite well in setup roles. The rest of the bullpen, though, well, it’s not so great. Tommy Kahnle, for example, has walked more than eight batters per nine innings. And he’s one of their better options past their big three.

White Sox Relievers the Last Month:

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Game 1, Friday: Yordano Ventura vs. Carlos Rodon

As you can see above, Rodon has been great lately after a shaky start to the season. This is all after a return from the disabled list in late July. His first start back was a little rough, but then he got it together and has been very good since the start of August. What’s been impressive about him this year is he’s cut down on his walks significantly while not losing a ton in the strikeout department from his impressive rookie year. He has been a bit more hittable this season, which might be the result of throwing more strikes, but he looks like he’s becoming the pitcher the White Sox expected when they drafted him third overall in 2014. He’s 1-1 with a 2.55 ERA in three career starts against the Royals with all three coming this season.

Three things to watch for against Rodon:

1. He throws a good fastball and a good sinker. The fastball comes about 40 percent of the time and averages 94 MPH while the sinker is a touch slower and thrown about 25 percent of the time. His moneymaker, though, is his slider he throws about 25 percent of the time. He flashes a changeup to keep hitters honest. As good as the fastball looks, it’s been hit pretty hard this year with a .355 average against it and a .587 SLG. That slider has accounted for 76 of his 129 strikeouts this season, so batter beware.
2. Rodon has a bit of an interesting split, which makes me believe maybe he does get too much of the plate at times. Early in games, he doesn’t walk many batters, but on his first 25 pitches, he’s allowed a .325/.360/.460 line. As he gets deeper into the game, his control seems to elude him a bit more with 17 walks after throwing his 75^th pitch, but he’s only allowed a .234/.323/.401 line. It might not be a bad idea to be swinging early in the early portion of the game, but then adjusting as his control tends to waver later.
3. Rodon is death to lefties. He’s allowed a .291/.350/.455 line to right-handed bats, but just .226/.268/.340 to lefties. The Royals aren’t about to sit Eric Hosmer considering where they are in the standings, but it wouldn’t be the worst idea to get Hunter Dozier into this one as maybe the DH with Kendrys Morales at first base. They could even slide Cheslor Cuthbert to first and play Dozier at third, I guess. And Hosmer has struggled against Rodon with a .444 OPS in nine plate appearances. The Royals as a whole, though, have a .348/.394/.409 line among hitters who have faced him with Whit Merrifield, Billy Burns, Paulo Orlando, Salvador Perez, Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain all picking up multiple hits against him.

Ventura had a weird outing his last time on the bump, giving up just one run on six hits, but walking six and striking out only two. I guess you could look at the positive of that and say that even though he didn’t really have much going, he still got through it and got the job done. Still, he’s going to need to be stingier with the walks, which he really had been since the terrible start of the season he had in that regard. He’s given up three earned runs or less in 11 straight starts now and has a 2.90 ERA in that stretch, so he’s pitching well. He’s 3-3 with a 4.33 ERA in nine career starts against the White Sox, including 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts this year. Saladino, Abreu, Frazier and Avisail Garcia all have homers against him, but only Abreu has hit him really well among guys who have seen him more than a couple times.

The Forecast

Game 2, Saturday: Edinson Volquez vs. James Shields

The Royals will see their former ace for the first time since he left them, but I doubt they’ll recognize him. I mentioned above how bad he’s been for the White Sox, but what’s weird is he had a stretch of six starts where he posted a 1.71 ERA in 42 innings after his disastrous start to his time with Chicago. Since then, though, he has a 12.07 ERA in his last seven starts with 15 home runs allowed. I mean he’s throwing batting practice. Just once in those seven games has he allowed less than four runs. In 17 starts with the White Sox, he’s allowed five or more runs eight times. That’s awful. He’s 7-2 with a 3.45 ERA in 10 career starts against the Royals, but the last one came in 2012, so this is a different guy now.

Three things to watch for against Shields:

1. His fastball velocity is down to just 91 MPH, which is probably a big part of the problem. He throws that about 33 percent of the time. His number two pitch remains his changeup, and that’s still an okay pitch but not what it once was. He also throws a cutter, curve and sinker. He’s allowed 13 homers on the fastball in 177 at bats, but 12 homers on the cutter in just 135 at bats. Go up there hunting for those two pitches and things should be just fine. Of course, he doesn’t throw a single pitch that hasn’t been crushed a little bit this year, so you can’t really go wrong.
2. You can get to Shields early and often. He’s allowed a .311/.384/.608 line the first time through the order, but that does drop to .286/.353/.465 the second time through. That’s not to say he becomes effective after the lineup turns over, but it gets a little more difficult. If he makes it to a third time through, which he hasn’t on four occasions, that number balloons back to .295/.376/.596. The point is that you can get Shields, but it’s even easier to get him early and late rather than in the middle.
3. Righties have had great success against him this year while lefties have only had good success with an OPS of .978 and .857 respectively. Only Daniel Nava, Alex Gordon and Morales have had more than seven plate appearances against him and none have fared well, but Nava does have a home run. Maybe he’ll get a chance to start a game here, but I doubt it.

Volquez was the guy who was signed to essentially replace Shields in the Royals rotation and after doing a good impression last year has struggled a lot this season. He’s actually looked a little better at times lately, and I think the perception of him would be different had he not pitched in the seventh in his last start. But still, he’s been bad. He’s now posted a 5.70 ERA in 25 starts since starting the year so strong, and often lately has struggled to even give innings, going more than five just once in his last four starts. He’s 2-3 with a 3.26 ERA against the White Sox in eight career starts, but has a 5.25 ERA in two starts against them this year after a 1.64 ERA in five starts last year. Maybe he’ll get that 2015 mojo back in this one. Avila and Cabrera have homered against him, but he’s held down the lineup for the most part.

The Forecast

Game 3, Sunday: Ian Kennedy vs. Chris Sale

Sale has been outstanding this year, but I think his season has been overrated. He was buoyed by a great start that of course counts in the overall numbers, but in his last 18 starts, he’s 6-7 with a 3.88 ERA. It’s possible to be truly great and overrated at the same time, so don’t think I’m slighting Sale in any way here. He gives tons of innings, averaging better than seven per start. He gets a ton of strikeouts, he doesn’t walk hitters and he’s tough to hit. Sale is one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball. He’s tough to beat, and the Royals know how hard it is. But they’ve done it. He’s just 8-9 against the Royals with a 3.08 career ERA in 29 games (18 starts). This year, he’s 1-0 but with a 4.50 ERA and last year, he struggled too, with a 4.05 ERA against them. He doesn’t often give up a ton of runs, but the Royals do seem to get to him.

Three things to watch for against Sale:

1. His average fastball velocity is down about two miles per hour from last season, which they all claim is by design, so you have to take them at their word. He throws that fastball at just under 94 MPH and about 47 percent of the time. He also has a sinker, changeup and a fantastic slider. The fastball has actually been his most hittable pitch this season with a .439 slugging percentage against it and 17 homers hit off it.
2. It’s tough to find a weakness for Sale, but he has struggled a bit at home with a 3.74 ERA compared to 2.55 on the road. It’s the home run ball that’s killed him with 16 allowed in 84.1 innings compared to just five in 109.1 innings on the road. He’s also been a bit worse with runners on than with the bases empty if you’re looking for a silver lining to facing him.
3. He’s great against everyone, but especially lefties, who have hit .189/.225/.330 against him compared to .224/.282/.351 to righties. Hopefully Cain is back in time for this one as he’s hit Sale very well in his career with a .962 OPS and three homers. Hosmer hit both of his homers against Sale in Chicago back in June and has a .381/.395/.548 line against him, which his unprecedented for a lefty. Escobar, Perez, Morales and Orlando all have homers against him and have all hit with varying levels of competency against him.

After a great August, Kennedy opened September strong before he ran into a wall against the Twins in his last start. Still, he looked good in spite of the four runs in 5.1 innings pitched. He struck out six and walked two, so that’s what you’re looking for. Now, he’s pitching in a park that isn’t great for him with his fly ball tendencies, but hopefully he can keep that under control. He’s 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA in his last eight starts, so maybe he can get back on track here and keep that run going. He did allow four home runs in his only start in Chicago earlier this year and is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three career starts against the White Sox with two coming this season. Cabrera, Avila and Shuck have all taken Kennedy deep while Morneau has also hit him well in his career.

The Forecast

The Prediction

They need a sweep. I don’t think they get it, which is disappointing. The White Sox, as bad as they look at times, still have some pitching and I think have the pitching edge in two of the three games this series. I’m almost tempted to say the Royals actually lose two of three, but I think they find a way to win one of the games they probably shouldn’t and end up taking two of three, setting up an almost must-sweep eight-game home stand. That’s tough. But it’s where they are.