Series Preview: Royals vs. Oakland A’s, September 12-15

As is often the case with the A’s, their team looks very different in September than it did in April when the Royals last faced them. They’ve dealt more than 20 percent of their Opening Day roster in addition to losing many others to injuries, so they’re currently playing out the string and working to evaluate players in the hopes of contending next year. They’ll try their best to spoil the Royals slim postseason hopes now, but this series is a stark reminder of the different direction these two teams took after the 2014 Wild Card game. This year, the A’s took two of three from the Royals in April, but again, this is a very different club than we saw nearly five months ago.

It’s worth noting that the A’s currently have six former Royals on their active roster and that’s after making moves to trade one former Royal and to release another.

A’s Offense

Well, it’s not good. They rank at or near the bottom of the AL in basically every offensive category. Aside from Khris Davis, they don’t have much power. They don’t walk much. They don’t steal bases. They do make decent contact, but it isn’t working quite as well for them as it did for the Royals the last few seasons. And now they don’t even have Billy Butler for the storyline, as they released the former Royal before the end of their last series. Basically, there’s just two or three guys to be careful with and then pitchers can really attack.

A’s Offense the Last Month:

A’s Pitching

With Sonny Gray and Rich Hill at the top, the A’s felt great about their rotation heading into the season. Hill was fantastic when healthy, but now he’s with the Dodgers. Gray was terrible when healthy, and now he’s on the disabled list. Instead, the starting staff is filled with youngsters and a token veteran who have had varying levels of success. They’re clearly evaluating in this last month of the season, which is kind of dangerous, especially to a team like the Royals. On another former Royals note, it has been fun to watch Sean Manaea develop. He looks like he might have a future in this league.

A’s Starters the Last Month:

The bullpen is better than you’d expect for a bad team. They have another former Royals player closing in Ryan Madson. I wouldn’t have given him the deal they did, but he’s been very solid for him this season. Ryan Dull has also been very good in a setup role. With those two and Sean Doolittle, there’s a fair amount of talent in that bullpen that you really don’t often see on teams where they are in the standings.

A’s Relievers the Last Month:

Note: The A’s have a lot of pitchers they’re getting starts to. This happens far too often in September, but the A’s rotation is subject to change as the series progresses.

Game 1, Monday: Dillon Gee vs. Ross Detwiler

After showing a lot of promise early in his career, Detwiler hasn’t been especially good and has bounced around a little bit. He’s now 30 and with his fifth team, and he’s just no longer all that effective. He’s given the A’s some innings down the stretch, though, which is pretty much what they were looking for with him I guess. There’s really not a ton of good stuff to say about him at this point, but he has gotten his walks under control a little since joining the A’s, so that gives him a chance to compete. He’s faced the Royals once in his career, last season, and took the no-decision in a five inning outing where he gave up three runs.

Three things to watch for against Detwiler:

1. He throws a 93-94 MPH fastball about 40 percent of the time, a sightly slower sinker about 26 percent of the time and then complements those two pitches with a curve and a change. He’s actually had some success on everything but the fastball, but he’s allowed a .531 SLG on his fastball and three of the four homers he’s allowed.
2. The sample this year is very small, but he sort of starts to crumble when asked to work with men on base. With the bases empty, he’s allowed a line of .232/.300/.317, which is quite good. But with men on, that skyrockets to .333/.394/.540. With runners in scoring position, it’s even worse – .351/.419/.541. Yikes.
3. I think Detwiler could work as a LOOGY and that’s partially because of his .624 OPS allowed to lefties compared with .790 to righties. I’ve said this a little since September started, but this seems like a good chance to get Hunter Dozier some action. Drew Butera has a homer against him in his career while Kendrys Morales and Alcides Escobar have two hits each, so those are matchups to at least pay attention to in this one.

Gee continues his quest to provide admirable outings out of the fifth spot in the rotation. His last start looked like it might be a disaster in the making, but after allowing three solo home runs before the second inning was complete, he ended up going six innings and giving up just those three runs. Personally, I’ll take that from my five every time out. You’d obviously prefer better, but if your fifth best starter is doing that, it’s not so bad. What’s helped Gee lately is that he isn’t hurting himself. He has just three walks in his last five starts, spanning 29.2 innings. He’s also given up three runs or less in each of his last four starts. No, that’s not a noteworthy stretch or anything, but after what we’ve seen from that spot in the rotation, it’s been nice. He’s 0-2 with a 6.39 ERA in three games (two starts) against the A’s in his career. He threw three innings of one-run ball against them in relief earlier this year. Vogt has tagged him for a homer and Alonso and Davis have also hit him well in their careers.

Game 2, Tuesday: Danny Duffy vs. Jharel Cotton

I’m personally excited to see the A’s new, young starter. He was acquired in the Hill and Josh Reddick deal and made quite a big league debut, giving up just one run on two hits in 6.1 innings. He only struck out three, but in the bit I saw, he looked good. He hadn’t pitched especially well in Triple-A with the Dodgers organization, but he was outstanding for Nashville after getting traded. He struck out 10 per nine in his minor league career, and the A’s are hoping that kind of strikeout stuff will carry over into the big leagues. There’s some question as to whether he’s a starter or reliever, but the A’s have nothing to lose by starting him now.

1. He has a fastball he throws a lot that sits in the 92-93 range, but can touch higher than that, sometimes as high as 95 or 96 in what I’ve seen. He has a changeup that, when good, is very, very good. I think that pitch is going to ultimately be a big plus for him. He also throws a cutter and the occasional curve. From the little I’ve seen, I think his cutter is the pitch to do damage on, but I could be a little off on that.
2. Considering his reliance on his fastball and changeup, I’d assume that he would be a guy you can wait out and hit later in the games. It’s just hard to succeed with two pitches at the big league level when facing guys three or four times. It might be worth noting that this year between the majors and minors, he’s struggled with runners on in comparison to with the bases empty, so it could be another situation similar to Detwiler’s.
3. That changeup has helped him to dominate lefties this year, allowing a .185/.257/.302 line this season compared to .226/.273/.442 to righties. No Royals hitters have faced him, but I have a feeling that Morales can stay hot against him.

Duffy has now firmly exceeded his career high in innings pitched (and set a Royals record for most strikeouts by a lefty), and has been pretty average over his last few starts. You remember he struggled against Boston in Boston and then was a little shaky against Detroit. He was much, much better his last time out against the Twins, striking out 10 and walking nobody in six innings against the Twins, but he just didn’t seem as dominant. He’s gotten progressively better in each of his two starts since his bad start, so maybe this is the one that can be back to ace Duffy. His updated numbers as a starter are still fantastic. He’s 11-2 with a 3.15 ERA in 137.1 innings, which is an average of about 6.1 innings per start and that’s with his first few on a pitch count. He’s still been very impressive even with this rough stretch. He’s 3-0 with a 2.59 ERA in five games and four starts against the A’s in his career. He threw a scoreless inning in relief against them in April. Only four A’s hitters have faced him and somehow Matt McBride is the one who has gotten to him with two hits and a homer in three at bats.

Game 3, Wednesday: Yordano Ventura vs. Sean Manaea

The Royals will get to see their prize prospect who they dealt to the A’s in exchange for Ben Zobrist last season. I don’t think the Royals regret the trade in any way, nor should they, but it would definitely be nice to have his arm in the rotation for both this year and the next few. There are questions of health for Manaea, given his delivery, but there are no questions of stuff. In fact, he’s actually missed a little time with a bit of a back injury lately, but is expected back for this game. What’s been surprising to me is the control he’s exhibited as that was long something that I’d have worried about with him had he been with the Royals still. And who’s to say he would have progressed this much this year in the Royals organization? Sometimes certain philosophies just work better than others. It hasn’t always been pretty for him this year, but since hitting rock bottom on May 10 in his third start, he’s gone 5-8 with a 3.58 ERA in 108 innings with 94 strikeouts and 27 walks. The 15 homers he’s allowed in that time have been a little much, but it’s worked. He hasn’t faced the Royals yet.

Three things to watch for against Manaea:

1. He’s a three-pitch guy with a fastball, changeup and slider. The fastball is a pitch he uses a lot, throwing it almost 60 percent of the time. It has averaged about 93 MPH this season, which is a little slower than I remember him being clocked at in the Royals system. One thing that I remember, though, is that he’d lose velocity and he doesn’t seem to do that as much in the big leagues. That fastball has been hit, but both the changeup and the slider have been very good. All three have been used as strikeout pitches, so he’s dangerous throughout the count.
2. The plan against Manaea is pretty simple. It’s to try to work the count as best as possible and get through the first couple innings and turn the lineup over. When he faces a lineup for the first time, he’s allowed a .211/.260/.325 line. The second time through, that jumps to .264/.322/.409. Then that leaps to .336/.382/.682 the third time. Coming off a back injury and with expanded rosters, I’d be surprised if the A’s go too long with him, but that’s worth noting. One thing about Manaea that should have the Royals on alert is that he has a very good pickoff move.
3. Manaea has been murder on lefties, holding them to a .167/.213/.298 line against lefties and a .280/.330/.479 line to righties. Look for a righty stacked lineup in this one. No Royals have faced Manaea in the big leagues.

There was good and bad for Ventura in his last start. The good is that he went seven innings, but the bad is that he gave up five runs on 10 hits. There’s always value in giving innings, and even if that’s all Ventura can ever do, he has a spot in the rotation given his stuff, but you’d like to see better. He’s struck out just five and walked eight over his last two starts spanning 13 innings. I know why it happens, but it just floors me that he doesn’t strike out more hitters with the kind of stuff he does have. The A’s lineup isn’t good at all. Ventura could get back on track here. He’s 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in two starts against the A’s in his career, but that’s the result of getting rocked in a start last year. Semien is 3 for 6 with a double and two homers against Ventura in his career. Nobody has a ton of plate appearances against him, but that one stands out.

Game 4, Thursday: Edinson Volquez vs. Daniel Mengden

The A’s acquired Mengden in the deal that sent Scott Kazmir to the Astros last year, and he’s shown some signs of maybe being something in the future. He was just drafted two seasons ago, so he’s really shot through the minors. One thing you’ll notice immediately is Mengden’s unconventional delivery. He has good stuff that is played up from the delivery and will get his strikeouts, but has so many of the struggles that we see from young pitchers with command and control. In his first four starts, he had very good results. Things haven’t been so strong since then with him allowing less than four runs just twice in seven starts. Of course, one was his last start against Seattle when he gave up two runs on five hits in five innings.

Three things to watch for against Mengden:

1. He throws his fastball about half the time, and it averages around 93 MPH, but can reach a little higher when he needs it. He also has a changeup with some fade, along with a slider and a curve. The slider is pretty tight, so when he misses with it, it’s a pitch that can be crushed. He’s given up the bulk of his damage against the fastball, but the walks are what really hurt him.
2. This approach could obviously change as the game goes on, but taking the first pitch is a pretty darn good idea against him. Opponents have hit just .250 with a .417 SLG on the first pitch. And when he’s behind in the count, he’s allowed a .333/.571/.630 line. Of course, if he’s pounding early strikes, the Royals will have to change to avoid being down 0-1 in every count, but their approach early should be to take.
3. He hasn’t shown much of a platoon split in the big leagues with an OPS of .805 allowed vs. righties compared to .810 vs. lefties. No Royals hitters have faced him.

Volquez just continues to struggle. He’s allowed four runs or more in eight of his last nine starts, and with this offense, that just doesn’t work. He’s not even really giving big innings anymore, averaging just over five innings per start in that stretch. He has a 6.46 ERA in that time, and that’s even made to look better by the four unearned runs he’s allowed in that stretch. I really want to believe that he’s better than this, but nothing really says that to me lately. He’s had success against the A’s, going 3-2 with a 2.89 ERA in five career starts, which includes six solid innings against them earlier this season. Vogt has a homer against him, but nobody has really hit him all that well.

The Prediction

The A’s aren’t playing for anything and that makes them very dangerous. Their pitching is young, which gives the Royals trouble sometimes, so I’m a little worried about this series. I think the Royals could very easily sweep this thing, but I really don’t love the way they’re playing and think they actually only end up with a split here, which is too bad because I think they need a sweep to keep slim hopes alive.