Series Preview: Royals vs. Cleveland Indians, June 13-15

The long losing streak is over, but the Kansas City Royals still have plenty of work to do to build back to where they were before it began. Luckily for them, they have a great opportunity on this upcoming homestand to put the ugliness of last week behind them. It begins with a visit from the first place Cleveland Indians, who the Royals have had some trouble with this season, going just 1-6 to date. This will be the Indians first trip to Kansas City, which also means that they will play nine of the final 12 games of their season series against them in the friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium. That’s a good thing for the Royals.

Indians Offense

As I’ve done with recent White Sox series previews, I won’t get into an analysis of what the Indians offense does well, given that these two teams just met last week. Instead, I’ll show you what they’ve done over the last couple weeks to see who is hot right now and who isn’t. I will point out the Indians roster construction is a little weird with only three outfielders on the active roster with Michael Brantley on the DL. Michael Martinez, a utility infielder, has gotten a lot of time out there and actually played well. One other note – Juan Uribe had to be carted off the field in the series finale against the Angels after a hard ground ball hit him in his no no zone. There’s a decent chance we won’t see much of him in this series.

Indians Pitching

Here’s a look at what Indians pitchers have done over the last month or so.

Starters

Relievers

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Game 1, Monday: Edinson Volquez vs. Carlos Carrasco

Carrasco came off the disabled list a little earlier than expected, and he made his first start back against the Royals. He may have been activated a little too early as he’s struggled a bit in his return, giving up seven runs on 14 hits in 11.2 innings. Still, he’s obviously an extremely talented pitcher, and the Indians are better with him in their rotation. He’s more than capable of slicing through a lineup with seemingly very little effort, so this is a tough matchup for an offense that can go into a funk with the snap of a finger. He’s 6-4 with a 3.68 ERA in 17 games (12 starts) against the Royals in his career, but he’s 4-2 with a 2.35 ERA in his last four seasons against the Royals, including this year.

Three things to watch for against Carrasco:

1. Carrasco still throws very hard, but his velocity has been dropping a bit, as happens to most pitchers. His fastball is thrown about 38 percent of the time and averages just a touch under 95 MPH. His sinker is thrown a little less than 20 percent of the time and comes in at around 94 MPH. He also throws a slider, curve and a change. All can be plus pitches, though the slider has been hit for power this season. Hitters have had success against his fastball.
2. The numbers, when looked at one way, will tell you that going first pitch hunting against Carrasco is a good idea. When the at bats ends on that first pitch, opponents are hitting .357/.400/.571. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Beyond those 15 plate appearances that ended after the first pitch, there have been 20 others that didn’t. Those at bats resulted in a .100/.100/.250 line. That’s not very good.
3. Carrasco has a typical platoon split with about a 50 point difference between the OPS he’s allowed to lefties and what he’s allowed to righties. The Royals might welcome getting some of their lefty hitters back in the lineup after facing lefties all weekend. Eric Hosmer has had a lot of success against Carrasco with a .935 OPS, and Lorenzo Cain has been good as well. But outside of limited at bats from Drew Butera and Reymond Fuentes, Carrasco has handled the Royals well.

The Royals need Volquez to turn things around. He hasn’t been sharp lately and last time out, he was bad in a different way than we’d seen from him. He was outstanding early, then faded. He’s given up 63 hits in 53.2 innings in his last nine starts. He has a 5.70 ERA in that time. Not good enough. He’s 2-6 with an 8.12 ERA in nine career starts against the Indians. This year, he’s 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in two starts. Yikes. Napoli, Kipnis, Chisenhall, Kipnis and Santana all have an OPS of 1.000 or higher against Volquez in his career.

The Forecast

Game 2, Tuesday: Chris Young vs. Josh Tomlin

Tomlin’s success has probably been a little overstated by many. That’s not to say he hasn’t been good, but just not as good as many would lead you to believe, I think. He has a shiny record at 8-1 and a solid ERA at 3.49, but he has a FIP of nearly a full run higher. He’s also given up six unearned runs this season, which still count on the scoreboard, even if they don’t impact the earned run average. There’s a lot of good with Tomlin, of course. He throws strikes as well as anyone with a walk rate below one per nine. With that, even his lower strikeout rate works. Tomlin is 8-4 with a 4.92 ERA in 18 games (14 starts) in his carer against the Royals. He’s 2-0 with a 3.65 ERA in two starts against them this year.

Three things to watch for against Tomlin:

1. Tomlin relies on a fastball and a cutter. His fastball will not “wow” you on the radar gun, coming in at about 88 to 89 MPH with decent movement. Tomlin gives up a lot of home runs, and the fastball is a pitch that can be hit out of the yard. It’s the same story for the cutter, which comes in at about 86 MPH, but has been hit hard this season. He also throws a curve, change and the occasional sinker.
2. If you’re going to get Tomlin, it’s likely going to happen early. He’s allowed 32 runs this year with nine of them coming in the first inning. Opponents have hit .356/.362/.756 with five homers in the first inning. The first time through the order, he allows a .312/.333/.570 line. Hit him early, hit him often. Or else it might be a long day.
3. Tomlin has actually been a touch better against lefty bats than right-handers this season, but there really isn’t much of a difference. Christian Colon only has five career plate appearances against Tomlin, but he’s hit a double and a triple off him. Salvador Perez is a career .650 hitter with a slugging percentage of 1.100 off him in 20 plate appearances. Jarrod Dyson has two triples againast him and Lorenzo Cain has hit pretty well off him as well.

Chris Young was moved from his start on Sunday to Tuesday. I assume it was to get him to pitch in Kauffman Stadium rather than on the road in a park good for home runs, but you never know. With Dillon Gee back, Young is probably back to fighting for his rotation life in this start. He’s been much better in Kansas City, so that’s what the Royals are hoping for here, but he’s also allowed nine home runs in his last two starts in just 7.2 innings, including the last one against the team he’ll face, the Indians. Even with that performance, he’s 3-2 with a 3.64 ERA in his career against the Indians over 10 games (seven starts). Naquin, Kipnis, Napoli, Santana and Lindor all have homers against Young, but the only guy who has faced him more than six times and has had lots of success off him is Kipnis.

The Forecast

First Pitch Temperature: 87° F
Wind: SSW at 10-15 mph
Cloud Cover: Partly Sunny
Precipitation: 60% chance of showers/thunderstorms

Game 3, Wednesday: Ian Kennedy vs. Corey Kluber

Kluber is still a good starter. He doesn’t seem like he’ll be duplicating that 2014 Cy Young season anytime soon, but he’s still excellent and difficult to face. He is striking out a batter per nine innings less than he did last season, but he’s maintained his excellent control, so it’s not a huge worry, but it’s certainly worth paying attention to if you’re an Indians fan. He’s can still be difficult to hit and throws all those strikes with such good stuff, so there’s no real solace the Royals hitters can take in facing him. He’s 6-5 with a 3.17 ERA in 15 career starts against the Royals. Four of his five career losses against him came last season, and he threw six shutout innings against the Royals in Cleveland.

Three things to watch for against Kluber:

1. He lives with the fastball and sinker with both pitches coming in between 93 and 94 MPH with some good movement. He also uses a cutter that’s about four miles per hour slower as a bit of an off speed pitch to change the hitter’s timing. He mixes in a very good slider and a changeup from time to time. The fastball and sinker have been hit hard at times, but the rest of his pitches have been great this season.
2. I’ve probably mentioned this about Kluber already this year, but it’s interesting to me, so I’ll say it again. Kluber has been a different guy with runners on and runners in scoring position. Wiht the bases empty, he’s allowed a .193/.245/.280 line. With runners on, that jumps to .266/.302/.440. It jumps even higher with runners in scoring position to .283/.339/.453.
3. Kluber has been good against everyone, but especially good against righties this season with an OPS allowed of more than 100 points lower than what he’s allowed to lefties. Hosmer has hit Kluber well, but the other guy to have success off him is very surprising. It’s Omar Infante. Yes, the same one who plays for the Royals. Nobody else has really done anything against him.

Kennedy has regressed pretty quickly over his last couple starts, and he now is the proud owner of an ERA over 4.00 with a FIP more than a run higher. He’s given up 12 runs in 11.2 innings with six homers allowed over his last two starts, so that shows you how to see the numbers rise quickly. Like so many Royals pitchers, he has been fantastic at home, but awful on the road. He has a 1.46 ERA in four home starts. with 29 strikeouts in 24.2 innings. Hopefully that’s the Kennedy who shows up. He’s 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in four career starts against the Indians. He’s 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA in two starts against them this year. Gimenez, Napoli and Naquin have homered off him and quite a few others have hit him well in limited plate appearances.

The Forecast

First Pitch Temperature: 94° F
Wind: S at 3-6 mph
Cloud Cover: Sunny
Precipitation: 0%

The Prediction

The Royals are a different team at home than they are on the road, but they’ve also looked very poor against the Indians this season. In fact, the Royals have been outscored by the Indians 37-18. That’s bad. So this is kind of tough to predict given how poorly they are playing right now. I do like what this team does at home, though, so I’ll say they take two of three in this one.