Friday Notes

Another week, another injury to a star Royals player. This is getting really old. This time, as you know, Wade Davis was placed on the disabled list with a forearm strain. The Royals say it has nothing to do with the ligament and that he should be back quickly. If that’s the case, great. If they’re covering something up, which they’ve done in the past (and I’m not saying they’re wrong to do that), then that could be the final nail in the coffin, but we’ll see what happens. I’m smart enough to not count this team out at any point. I’ve done that enough. Heck, I had an article written by about the seventh inning of game five of the ALDS titled “RIP 2015 Royals.” No, that article was never and will never be published.

• Man, last night’s game. I don’t want to say it can save the season because I don’t think one win can turn anything around that drastically at this point, but that’s the sort of game you point to if the Royals do go on a run. Watching them flail hopelessly against James Paxton was frustrating as anything, but the result made sitting through that all worth it. One of the more important things to come out of the game, aside from the win was seeing Salvador Perez actually start to hit again. He had been ice cold after being lava hot, and the Royals offense has missed his bat in the middle of the order. That may have been important, but probably the coolest thing was seeing Brooks Pounders get the win and his dad wipe away tears after the game. Baseball is pretty cool and great.
• It’s pretty cool that the Royals will have multiple starters in the All-Star Game next week for the second consecutive year. If you haven’t heard yet, welcome back from the rock you’ve been under. Perez and Eric Hosmer will get the start at catcher and first respectively in San Diego. Perez is pretty clearly the best catcher in the American League this season and has the track record along with a World Series MVP to back up his star power. Hosmer isn’t the best first baseman in the AL, though he was for a good chunk of the voting, but I think this is a result of a rabid Kansas City fan base, but also a national audience that has seen him drive in runs in droves during the postseason and appear on national television shows after winning a World Series title. And while he may not really be the best first baseman in the AL this year to this point, he’s had a heck of a season, so the nod is deserving.
• As the trade deadline approaches in 24 days, the Royals are in a very interesting spot. They’ve won a World Series, as you know. They’ve been to two straight. There’s no more playoff drought to break. They’ve done literally everything a team can do to knock out the “it’s been __ years since” comments about basically anything. The Royals are going to have to decide if they can realistically win the Central division over a very good Indians team. And if they decide not to, they’re going to have to decide if it’s worth it to trade prospects for talent just for a shot at winning a 50/50 Wild Card game. If the Royals can get to the playoffs, I will like their chances because we’ve seen what this team can do. But I don’t love their chances in a one-game playoff with their current starting rotation. Personally, I don’t think it’s worth trading off what little high end talent they have in the system just to try to win one game. Had they missed the playoffs the last two years, I’d say do it. Get there and see what happens. But I see a team that’s been hurt badly by injuries and looks to get back the bulk of a core that has missed a lot of time this year. I’m not saying I’d sell. Not at this point. But I am saying that I don’t think I’d buy. Not heavily at least. Look at what’s out there. Do you think Josh Reddick and Rich Hill make the Royals a contender to make up more than a few games over the final 77? I really don’t. There’s no need, to me, to deal guys who could help this team remain relevant following the exodus of the championship core for the chance to maybe win that one game. We’ve seen first hand how crazy it can be. I do understand the other side of it, but I just don’t agree with it.
• At first I tweeted this as a stupid joke stat that means nothing. It’s still a stupid joke stat that means nothing, but I can’t get past thinking about it. The Royals are 16-30 on the road. That’s horrible. They’re 28-11 at home. That’s elite. Those aren’t the stats that I tweeted as jokes. What I tweeted was how well the Royals do in the Central time zone and how poorly they do elsewhere. A lot of people commented that the home record is so good that of course they do. Well, they’re 11-4 on the road in the Central time zone. They’ve played the Astros when they were down, the White Sox, who I don’t think are that good, the Twins (who are just bad) and a good Cardinals team to get there. I don’t think it means anything at all, but it’s kept my attention after a road trip where they were 2-0 in their time zone and 1-5 elsewhere.
• Something has been on my mind the last few weeks as I’ve seen more and more people get acquainted with advanced statistics. It’s funny because I’m obviously a big proponent of all the advanced stats, but as time has gone on, I feel like I’m swinging back the other way a little bit. The latest came to a head yesterday when Corey Kluber was added to the All-Star team to replace Marco Estrada, who is injured. Ken Rosenthal, a great reporter for Fox Sports, made the case that he deserved it based on his underlying statistics. And Rosenthal is right that those are great. His FIP was the best in the American League heading into play on Thursday. He doesn’t give up hits, doesn’t walk many and strikes out a ton. Kluber is a legitimately fantastic pitcher. But he’s underperformed his FIP by at least half a run every year of his career other than his outstanding 2014 when he won a Cy Young. I just feel like a lot of people place too much emphasis on advanced statistics without taking a step back to see the whole picture. Another thing I’ve seen cited recently is Pythagorean record. I think there’s a great use for it, but to quote it as the be all, end all is silly. And that’s true with any statistic. Even one that’s all encompassing like WARP is one that has its flaws. So my advice to you if you’re interested in advanced statistics and want to use them is do it. Do it a lot. But understand that no stat tells even remotely close to the whole story.