Billy Burns hasn’t been around long enough to earn automatic “Someday That Guy Is Going To Be A Royal” status. Yet when the trade was announced over the weekend, there were plenty of people who responded with a knowing head nod in the affirmative.
Another speedy, athletic outfielder with a high contact rate and power that is essentially nonexistent? The Royals would like to welcome you to their roster, Mr. Burns.
Let’s just cut to the chase and excerpt his report from the most recent Baseball Prospectus Annual:
“A short, fast guy at the top of the order should be patient. He should work the count and wait for a good pitch to hit or take a walk so he can run wild on the bases. Burns never got the memo, averaging 3.5 pitches per plate appearance and hacking at first pitches like they were knotted vines blocking his path to buried treasure. Thing is, he destroyed first pitches, hitting .479 and slugging .718. Unorthodox though his strategy is, it’s hard to argue with results.”
Seriously.
Of course, the above was written post 2015, when Burns rode a .339 BABIP to a .334 OBP and a .268 TAv. Useful enough, by damn, that he could live atop a lineup to set the table for the boppers behind him. But the BABIP Gods have a way of correcting mistakes, and Burns’ coming back to Earth party has been cruel and unforgiving. He’s lost nearly 80 points off his BABIP (.261 this year) which has translated to a .270 OBP. That’s translated to a .208 TAv.
Such is the danger of the avoidance of walks. Walks? Screw ‘em. Burns takes a free pass just 4.2 percent of the time in his career. This season his walk rate is at 3.6 percent. It’s entirely possible this guy was Forever Royal before he ever became a Royal.
PECOTA recons Burns will gather 88 plate appearances between now and the finish line, with five steals, 10 runs scored and a .237 TAv. In other words… I’m sorry, I drifted off for a moment.
The price of one Billy Burns on the trade market is Brett Eibner. Honestly, it’s going to be a little weird not to see Eibner’s name someone on the organizational chart. He’s been around since 2010 and finally broke through to the majors this year. He provided a couple of unforgettable moments in what has become a forgettable season, and like so many of his teammates, spent time on the disabled list. Eibner is a nice player, but he’s a guy you rely on if you want to make a run for the PCL title. His upside feels like fifth outfielder; fourth on a good day.
The Royals likely see Burns as a useful major league piece going forward. How could they not? They’re the Royals. Yet this is a very minor trade. It’s a guy for a guy. Organizational filler for organizational filler.
As of this writing, this was the only Royals trade ahead of Monday’s non-waiver trade deadline. The Royals still have parts they can deal, but the injury bug swooped through the bullpen and crushed their most valuable trade chip in Wade Davis. It also removed Luke Hochevar from the conversation. Hochevar wasn’t going to net a large (or meaningful) return, but could have certainly provided some value to a contender with a balky bullpen. Instead, it appears his Royals career could be coming to a close.
That leaves Edinson Volquez and Kendrys Morales as the Royals most likely to be dealt. Although as the hours tick down to the deadline, it looks unlikely either will switch cities and uniforms. Such is the modus operandi of Dayton Moore. The rotation is thin and the lineup is scuffling to score. Both players mentioned here are without obvious replacement, even in the short-term. Moore has always been hesitant to deal if that means weakening his major league team, even for two months in what has become a lost season. The rumor mill for both players has been surprisingly quiet (more notable there has been next to no noise on the Volquez front) which leads me to believe teams think the Royals want to hold on to both for a stretch run that doesn’t exist.