I hope you had a happy and pleasant Thanksgiving. For those of us inclined to baseball, the holiday serves as another marker in the offseason. One step closer to Opening Day.
Up to this point, the winter seems a little more docile than usual. A quick check of Royals rumors on MLB Trade Rumors could leave you wondering if the team is still in the league. Aside from the assortment of 40 man roster housekeeping, the last player the Royals were linked to this off season was Kendrys Morales. Ahem.
This isn’t just a Royals issue. Nearly all of baseball is slumbering. How hot can a hot stove get if a hot stove can’t get hot? Or something like that.
As far as I can tell, his inertia is caused by a pair of reasons. One, this year’s free agent class is historically weak. Perhaps weak is a strong word to use in this situation, but when the top names available on the open market are relievers and designated hitters, it’s little wonder there hasn’t been much movement to this point.
Second, you have the upcoming expiration of the collective bargaining agreement without a new agreement in place. The idea that baseball, with an unprecedented run of labor peace, could experience a work stoppage simply blows the mind. It won’t necessarily come to that, but as long as a new agreement remains elusive, the threat of a lockout remains. (And let’s be honest, a lockout, first floated by Ken Rosenthal, is a threat designed to ratchet up the speed of the talks.) Regardless of the December 1 deadline, the talks will continue. But until there is something concrete agreed upon, it could be difficult for players to move.
This isn’t a Royals issue, it’s a baseball issue. Besides, things always seem to slow down around Thanksgiving as the market truly doesn’t take shape until the Winter Meetings. This year, the meetings kick off on December 5, which puts it in the awkward position of happening after the CBA expires. That means negotiations will happen, along with the usual trade discussions and free agent signings, during the event. It stands to be a busy week.
As for the Royals, it’s always difficult to determine what to expect. We do know there won’t be any high profile free agent signings which isn’t necessarily a bad thing in this market, but it does strike as unfortunate timing. Free agency is a fool’s errand. It’s dangerous to attempt to build a team through free agent acquisitions, but it can make sense to use the system to plug a hole or two on a roster. Based on Dayton Moore’s evolution of using free agency (Gil Meche and Jose Guillen to Ian Kennedy), he has reached a similar conclusion. The Royals definitely have holes to fill, but there aren’t many good fits available. With the Royals content on bringing back the core for one last run at a championship, it would have been nice for there to have been a little more robust market.
Does that leave a trade? Perhaps. But the Royals best asset in a trade would be Wade Davis and we know how much Moore and company love their bullpen. While it would make sense to deal Davis, it makes just as much sense to stand on the sidelines and let the closer market evolve. There are five teams with a stated need at closer. You have the Cubs, Dodgers, Nationals, Giants, and the Yankees all looking for a ninth inning man. With Kenley Jansen, Mark Melancon, Aroldis Chapman, and Greg Holland as the Proven Closers available, that will leave at least one of those teams out of the mix. (You always have to account for a Mystery Team swooping in unexpectedly.) It would behoove the Royals to wait out the market and see if they can find some desperation as it tightens. Davis’s value isn’t as high as it was last year, but I’d bet there is still enough value there to get a deal done.
As mentioned though, it takes two to tango. The Royals don’t seem to be too excited at the idea of dealing away their Proven Closer – or any of their core. Which means this version of the Winter Meetings could be a little too quiet.
Like the rest of baseball, we’ll just have to wait and see.