The baseball world, fresh from staving off a lockout, will convene in the nation’s capital this week for the annual winter meetings. This is a time that’s really fun for baseball nerds like me (and probably you) because it’s basically constant rumors and a lot of actual action, which is much needed after a month-plus without a baseball game to watch. This year, it seems like there’s been less action than usual, though I’m not sure that’s true. Maybe it’s because there’s been less action than we’ve grown accustomed to with the Royals.
If you want to know what to expect from the Royals this week in D.C., I wish I could tell you. My crystal ball has been broken for some time. But we can take a look at some of the possibilities.
Free Agents
There’s been plenty of talk about the Royals payroll situation and whether or not they actually have money to spend. I’m not sure if it’s that they don’t have money to spend or that they don’t want to spend the money they have on the available free agents in what’s one of the worst classes I can remember. Either way, the Royals don’t figure to be too terribly active on this market, at least not right now.
While there are players who can help the Royals, I think they’ll be far more involved in the bargain bin, some of which was filled the other day at the non-tender deadline. The thing is that most deals for bargain free agents don’t come early in the offseason because they often settle for the bargain deal after they don’t get the big deal. In order to make the “after” part true, it has to take some time.
There was a snippet in a recent Nick Cafardo piece where he mentioned the Royals as a suitor for Ivan Nova. From a pure need standpoint, that makes a lot of sense as they could stand to add some rotation depth. If he signs a three year, $36 million deal like J.A. Happ did last offseason, I think it would work. If he ends up at four years and $52 million like some have posited, I’d pass.
One thing the Royals have been consistent about this offseason is they want to rebuild their bullpen dominance. Even past the big-time closers, there are all sorts of arms out there in free agency. It’s one of the few areas where the market actually has some options. Peter Moylan is a pitcher who I think the Royals have interest in bringing back, though he might fall into the bargain free agent category. Neftali Feliz, Daniel Hudson, Fernando Rodney, Drew Storen and Brad Ziegler are all names the Royals could look into.
It’ll be interesting to see where the rumors lead us over the next couple days.
Buy or Sell?
The new CBA has had implications across the entire game with front offices determining if that will lead them to a different course of action than they’d initially planned. That could be the case with the Royals as they were expected to be mapping out their plans prior to the start of the meetings. The consensus is this CBA is not great for the Royals, though I don’t necessarily believe that to be the case. As a team receiving revenue sharing, they will still receive a first round compensatory pick for any free agent who signs for $50 million or more. I think most of their free agents are at least a strong possibility to cross that threshold.
But anyway, if the Royals don’t agree with me (wouldn’t be the first time), they’ll look to get value for at least some of their pending free agents this winter rather than lose them for minimal compensation next winter. All their pending free agents would be intriguing to multiple teams, but I would also wager that most of them would not bring back near the return that most fans would expect. It’s not that they aren’t talented or worth a big return, but they’re also only one-year investments who aren’t necessarily superstars.
Even Wade Davis, the one pending free agent who I believe unequivocally the Royals should trade, has question marks after spending two separate stints on the disabled list. In return for any of these players, the Royals will be looking for talent to help them within the next year and a half or so. The issue is that many of the players who they would be looking for might be earmarked in deals for bigger players such as Chris Sale or Chris Archer or anyone else who may or may not be available at this point.
What I think is more likely and will come to fruition during these meetings is that the Royals will settle for a happy medium and look to improve the 2017 team with smaller deals. Darin Watson wrote the other day about Patrick Corbin, and I think a move like one to acquire him is the direction the Royals will ultimately head. There aren’t any rumors surrounding these names, but players like Collin McHugh, Evan Gattis, Josh Harrison and Yangervis Solarte have all been rumored to be available and all seem like they’d be good fits for the Royals without having to give up the farm.
Of course, the Royals don’t have a ton to trade from their farm system, so a deal for any of these players would have to likely include some big league depth (like Davis or Cheslor Cuthbert) that they can afford to part with. There are a lot of moving parts here, but look for the Royals to be active on the trade market with many of the deals that could happen to at least be discussed over the next four days.
Rule 5
The Royals 40-man roster currently stands at 39 players after the trade of Brooks Pounders to the Angels last week. That means they have the opportunity to participate in the annual Rule 5 draft. For those unfamiliar, here’s a real basic rundown. Teams have the chance to select players left off other teams’ 40-man rosters. The player selected has to remain on the big league roster all season or be offered back to their original team. Some notable picks for the Royals include Joakim Soria, Andrew Sisco and Jon Nunnaly. The draft order is the same as the amateur draft in July, so the Royals will have the chance to select 15th.
It’s hard to say what teams will actually pick players and who will be selected, but a couple names who would be interesting for the Royals are Phillip Evans and Justin Haley. Evans is probably a second baseman, but he can play a little shortstop in a pinch. He hit .321/.366/.460 in the minors for the Mets this past year and makes a lot of contact, so he could be a fit for the Royals. Plus, they have a need so they might be able to carry him all year. Haley posted a 3.01 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A in the Red Sox system. He doesn’t have the looks of anyone special, but if he were to fall to 15th, he could be a nice depth move for the Royals.
So now what do we do? We wait and we enjoy the rumors and hope the Royals are better on Thursday when they leave D.C. than they are today.