On base percentage has been a touchy subject for the Royals because they typically don’t have a very good one. When they do, it’s because they got a lot of hits, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it’s not the most sustainable thing. An inning with five runs on eight hits sequenced perfectly is fun to watch, but power and patience are much more reliable when looking to score and score regularly.
Think about the 2015 Royals. When did that lineup really start to click? It was when they added Ben Zobrist and then ultimately got Alex Gordon back from injury. Three players in that lineup had a walk rate above nine percent. And before I go any farther, let’s not pretend that nine percent is any great shakes. It’s a little above average. But still, three guys were there and that was good. Because that team struck out so rarely, they could get away with a few less walks because they were putting the ball in play, so a guy like Mike Moustakas at seven percent worked, too.
Move ahead to 2016 when the offense struggled and only two Royals players had a walk rate above 7.8 percent. They were Gordon, who missed 34 games, and Eric Hosmer. Regular playing time was given to Paulo Orlando (2.7 percent), Salvador Perez (4.0 percent), Whit Merrifield (5.7 percent) and Cheslor Cuthbert (6.3 percent). As a result, the team finished 13th in on base percentage in the American League, compared to seventh in 2015. Some of that was a batting average fall-off, but some of it was that they were somehow actually less patient at the plate. In the interest of fairness, I’ll tell you that they drew just one less walk in 2016, but I think that’s because the Royals didn’t find real patience until after the trade deadline in 2015.
The good news is that I think the Royals are setting up to at least come near the patience we saw in the final month and a half plus postseason in 2015. They lose Jarrod Dyson, which is a big blow because he was one of the few who just didn’t swing at bad pitches, but Jorge Soler looks to at least be able to fill the patience that Dyson brought to the table. Last season, Dyson had an average walk rate of 7.7 percent, but swung at just 22.2 percent of pitches outside the zone, according to PITCHf/x.
Soler walked at an 11.7 percent clip (9.0 percent for his career), but also was able to lay off pitches. He wasn’t as good at it as Dyson, but only swung at bad pitches 28.1 percent of the time. I think the fact that Soler doesn’t make contact on those pitches as much as Dyson is actually a good thing for the future as making contact on pitches outside the strike zone leads to outs more often than making contact on pitches in the strike zone. And if things go well, Soler will get more playing time than Dyson would have, so the Royals patience will increase there.
As it stands right now, Moustakas will essentially replace Kendrys Morales in the lineup because it appears Cuthbert will be in the DH role quite often, shifting from third. Morales displayed perfectly acceptable patience, walking 7.8 percent of the time and swinging at 34.1 percent of pitches outside the zone. That’s a bit below average, but not significantly so. Moose, on the other hand, showed remarkable growth in his limited time before injury. His walk rate was basically where Morales sat (8.0 percent), but he showed marked improvement in his ability to lay off pitches outside the strike zone, swinging at just 26.5 percent. That’s a net improvement on the lineup.
Health is a big factor in this. If the Royals are healthy, they might actually be a relatively patient team. If Lorenzo Cain stays healthy, guys like Orlando and Billy Burns likely stay on the bench more and don’t bring their paltry walk rates and proclivity to swing at bad pitches to the plate. Instead, Cain and his 29.9 percent rate of swinging at bad pitches gets to play more alongside Soler and Gordon, who also needs to stay healthy. Gordon hasn’t swung at more than 30 percent of pitches outside the strike zone since his rookie year. Last year, he swung at 27.4 percent.
A quick note on Gordon that I found interesting. While his swing rate on bad pitches hasn’t increased, his performance on those pitches took a dive during 2016. He hit just .128 on pitches outside the strike zone after hitting .214 from 2011 to 2015. I’m not sure if that’s a good sign, a bad sign or no sign, but it was interesting to me that he struggled so much. His percentage of contact made on those pitches did drop by about 10 percent, so a lot of that may simply be strikeouts, but still, it’s worth noting.
And beyond health, hope is a factor, too. You have to hope that at some point, Hosmer flashes the plus plate discipline we were told about during his days in the minors. His walk rate is fine enough, I guess, at 9.1 percent in 2015 and 8.5 percent in 2016, but he still goes after too many bad pitches. We talk a lot about how many grounders he hit last season (and there were a lot), but what we don’t mention is where the pitches were that he hit for grounders. On pitches outside the strike zone, he hit a grounder 72.1 percent of the time the at bat was decided on that pitch.
There’s an issue with his swing, so he still hits a lot of grounders inside the zone, but the number drops to 51.7 percent. If Hosmer can cut the number of pitches he reaches on and is finally able to control the zone as advertised, he really could have a monster year. By comparison, his good year in 2015 showed a 62.7 percent ground ball rate on pitches outside the strike zone and a 44.4 percent ground ball rate in the zone. Get back to that and we might be talking about a 30 home run season with the way the ball is now flying out.
There’s also some hope with Cuthbert, who posted some solid enough walk rates in the minors and showed he doesn’t chase too much in the big leagues (31.2 percent career). I do believe there’s some patience there as he grows more comfortable at the big league level.
The team will still give plenty of at bats to guys like Alcides Escobar, Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez, which is why I wouldn’t mind the left-handed addition I mentioned the other day to be able to take a pitch or two. Pedro Alvarez does a decent job of that (30.7 percent swing and 9.5 percent walk rate last year), as does Stephen Drew (26.0 percent, 9.7 percent) and Logan Morrison (28.2 percent, 9.3 percent).
One other name I didn’t mention but was brought up in the comments is Luis Valbuena, who ended last year with a hamstring injury but can really work a walk with a 12.9 percent walk rate last year and only swung at 23.5 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. The more I think about it, the more I really like the idea of adding Valbuena to this lineup. He adds a little pop and a lot of patience.
No, the 2017 Royals likely won’t get confused for the 2000 Mariners who walked in 12 percent of their plate appearances or the 2007 A’s who only swung at 23.3 percent of pitches outside the strike zone as a team. But I do believe with some returns to health, a little hope and a couple key additions that they can finally bring some patience to Kauffman Stadium, and that would be a very good thing.