As the winter has plodded along, the transactions have been dreadfully slow for the Royals. It got to the point where we were waiting for the annual slew of minor league signings and spring training invites.
Finally, the Royals came through. Last week it was announced the Royals inked Al Alburquerque, Brandon League, and Chris Withrow to minor league deals with an invite to spring training. It’s the usual collection of low-risk arms that the Royals have had degrees of success with. The most intriguing name is probably Withrow.
A first round selection for the Dodgers way back in 2007, Withrow hit Double-A in his second professional season, but stalled. The prospecting reports had his with a plus fastball, but poor command. It was the command that kept him in Double-A for until 2013. Pitching for four seasons in Chattanooga, he totaled a 4.92 ERA with a 8.9 SO/9 and a 5.0 BB/9 working primarily as a starter.
He moved to the bullpen in 2012 and pitched there exclusively in Triple-A the following year, earning a call to the Dodgers in mid-summer. As a reliever, Withrow primarily features a four-seamer and a slider, with a curve spun in on occasion. The fastball generates an above average amount of swing and miss, coming in around 24 percent last year, which is right in line with his career rate. The four-seamer has the added benefit of being a strong ground ball pitch for Withrow. 46 percent of all fastballs put in play last year were grounders.
Tommy John Surgery came knocking in 2014 and he missed the entire 2015 season. Judging from his obscenely elevated walk rate in his limited action in ’14 (7.6 BB/9) it’s probably a safe assumption that he pitched his 21 innings with the injury that led him to the operating table. Prior to the surgery, Withrow regularly topped 95 mph with his fastball. In his return, he was throwing more in the 93 mph range, but slowly built up his arm strength as the year progressed.
Along with the gradual uptick in velocity, Withrow recovered what he possessed for command. It’s not a strength to be sure, but a 4 BB/9 was certainly an improvement. He finished the year with a 3.58 ERA, a 5.56 DRA and a -0.3 WARP. After earning $610,000, the Braves chose to non-tender the right-hander, making him a free agent.
The command issues obviously continue to be an issue, but the alarm bells really sounded in his decline in strikeout rate. In his short time pitching out of the Dodgers bullpen in 2013 and 2014, Withrow had an 11.4 SO/9. Last summer that rate plummeted to 6.7 SO/9. He was getting roughly the same percentage of whiffs on his four-seamer, but more contact was coming against his slider. The whiff rate on that pitch dropped from above 17 percent in 2013-2014 to around 12 percent last year. That doesn’t explain such a drastic decrease though. While his whiff rate was static on his four-seamer, more balls were put in play against his fastball last summer than previously. Hitters were much more aggressive against the pitch. It paid dividends for them as their collective batting average jumped about 100 points while their slugging increased by about 150 points.
So now Withrow will be in Surprise on a minor league contract. The question for the Royals to answer isn’t if they can fix his command. Those issues seems so ingrained that if you’re going to have him on your roster you’ll have to live with a high walk rate. Instead, the question will be if Withrow can miss bats with his slider which will allow his fastball to play up a notch. If the strikeout rate hovers around his 2016 level, he’s basically organizational filler, destined for life riding buses in the minors. If he can push it closer to double-digits, the Royals will have cashed in on another bullpen poker chip.
A low-risk, high-reward bullpen power arm. Just my kind of January free agent signing.