This is certainly a feeling we’re not really used to as Royals fans. Or maybe it’s something we’re completely used to. As the trade deadline approaches, it sure does look like we’re staring down the barrel of basically meaningless baseball for the final two months of the season, which simply hasn’t been the case since really 2012. To me, a 3-6 home stand put the nail in the coffin for the 2016 Royals as I really believe they needed to go at least 6-3 and maybe better. But hey, at least they won a game against the Angels this year. That has to count for something.
- I do believe the Royals are in a unique position. Most teams selling at the deadline (or at least teams considering it) are doing so because they’re not that good. The Royals, though, are doing so because the team they’ve sort of been forced into isn’t that good but the team that should be on the field next year should be really good. And this isn’t a “next year will be better” type thing that we went through for years with this organization. This is a situation where the likelihood is that there’s better health, star players actually perform near their capabilities and things fall into place a little easier. The 2017 Royals will likely look quite similar to the 2015 Royals that were great even before the Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto acquisitions. Sure, the same thing was said about this year’s team, but I don’t think anyone expected injuries and time missed to Lorenzo Cain, Wade Davis, Jarrod Dyson, Alex Gordon, Kris Medlen, Mike Moustakas, Mike Moustakas again, Salvador Perez and Chris Young. Maybe a couple, but all of them? No, nobody thought that. If they can get the value they desire for their pending free agents (Edinson Volquez, Kendrys Morales and Luke Hochevar), I’d make those deals to help the 2017 club. Honestly, I’d probably trade them for 80 cents on the dollar if it can help next year’s team because they don’t seem all that likely to be on it.
- On the subject of trading Wade Davis, I love the Royals stance on the situation, but I also think that will ultimately lead to Davis being a Royal through this season and into next year. That’s not a bad thing. I just don’t think their stance will allow anything serious to materialize, which is really okay. There’s no reason for the Royals to trade Davis given how good they expect to be in 2017. That said, if the Nationals would offer Lucas Giolito and Trea Turner (which is an exorbitant price), why not make that move? You’d get a big league ready middle infielder and a future ace. But if they don’t get that magical offer, they can hang on to Davis, allow him to be an elite closer for them for the rest of this year and into next year. But here’s why I see very little risk in this. If things fall flat next year, the market price has been set in the Aroldis Chapman deal. You can still likely get quite a haul for Davis in 2017 if things don’t work out how they had hoped or planned, so why trade him now without getting your socks knocked off?
- Now, it’s quite intriguing to think about the latest rumor that they’d like to package Ian Kennedy with him in order to get out from under the contract, but personally I’d rather keep Kennedy and get a ridiculous return on Davis. If they’re really serious about trading Kennedy, they can always look to make that deal next year if they end up selling some of their much bigger pending free agents. By forcing a team like the Dodgers to take on the Kennedy deal if they want Davis, you’re essentially removing yourself from any possibility of getting one of their top pitching prospects or anything else they can use. I’d much rather trade Davis for, say, Jose De Leon and Willie Calhoun and have Kennedy around than trade Davis and Kennedy for couple lower level prospects just for financial flexibility heading into a free agent market that is lackluster at best.
- It’s hard not to be optimistic about the future of Raul Mondesi. He made his first big league start on Tuesday, and in his first at bat hit a ball with an exit velocity of over 100 MPH just to the left of dead center. If not for Mike Trout, that would have likely been his first big league hit and first big league extra base hit. He had another good swing his next time up. Then on Wednesday, he picked up his first two big league hits by showing off one of his great weapons, speed. That bunt he laid down was gorgeous and watching him run was an awful lot of fun. He’s 21 (barely), so we’re going to see some silly mistakes that we didn’t see much of in Kansas City before the kids had to come up this season, but I think he has a chance to be a truly electrifying player. I have a strange feeling that he would be in the big leagues now basically regardless, but it’s nice that he was able to finally put up some production in the minors. Overall, he hit .268/.322/.469 with 22 extra base hits in 52 minor league games this year. In Omaha, he hit .304/.328/.536 with seven extra base hits in 14 games. The plate discipline is a work in progress and may never truly get there, but he’ll be fun to watch over the next couple months and for the foreseeable future.
- The Royals have said that when Lorenzo Cain comes back, he’ll spend some time in right field, which was where he played in his first rehab start on Wednesday. If you’ll recall, that was the plan originally for the team. They were going to play him more in right field this year to help rest his legs. Then Dyson got hurt in the first spring game and I think that really altered their plans, but I think it was a really good idea from the start. After a brutal April, Cain hit .319/.352/.466 over his next 51 games before getting hurt, so his bat certainly plays in right field and we know the defense is great there. It sure looks like right field is in his future in his career too. That’s one of the reasons I’m not sure I’d invest heavily in him, but the flip side of that is if it can keep him a little healthier and he can be an above average hitter, he might be a better investment as a right fielder. Still, it’ll be interesting to see how long they stick with Cain in right and Dyson in center as an option.
- And finally, all this talk about 2017 and there’s still a question of who is going to pitch. As things stand right now, the rotation looks like it’ll be Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura, Ian Kennedy and some combination of others. Jason Vargas should be back from Tommy John (and at 20 months after surgery), so he seems like a good bet to be in there. Then it’s a fifth starter. Is that Alec Mills? Jake Junis? Matt Strahm? Maybe they bring back Edinson Volquez. I think the Duffy/Ventura/Kennedy front three can be very good, but it’s still a question mark. The free agent market is fairly thin, so I wonder if the Royals don’t try to clear out a couple of their logjams and deal from the third base strength and the outfield strength (in the system, not at the big league level) and maybe try to get a starting pitcher out of that. A year of Moose could be tempting to a team in need of a third baseman and with a spare pitcher. Of course, not many teams have spare pitchers. Still, this is going to be one of the biggest questions of the offseason for the Royals, so we might as well start thinking about it now.