Note: This was originally published on Pine Tar Press on March 2, 2016.
So at this point in the preseason, I gave myself a choice: pick five reasons the Royals could repeat, or pick five reasons they won’t. Then I decided to do both, one this week and one next week. And following a World Series title, optimism won out, as it should. So here are five reasons the Royals will be back in the postseason this October.
I refuse to predict anything beyond the team returning to the playoffs. OK, OK, I do think they will win the AL Central again. But anything after that is just too difficult to predict. Our own David Lesky wrote this week that failure to win the World Series would be a disappointment, and while I understand his point, I disagree slightly. It would be a disappointment in the sense that I feel this team is good enough to pull that off, and I would be sad if they didn’t, but we should all realize that it’s very hard to tiptoe through the postseason minefield once, let alone twice. Unless there is some egregious error, physical or mental, I think a division title is the minimum expectation for this year.
So, here are five reasons the Royals can and should meet that:
The Aging Curve
As most of you know, the prevailing theory is that position players peak at age 27, then slowly decline. Of course, there are exceptions, but a good bet is that a player will have his best years around age 27. Well, Eric Hosmer is 26 now. Mike Moustakas is 27. And Salvador Perez is 25 and will turn 26 in May. Heck, if Christian Colon ends up seeing extended playing time, we can take comfort in the fact he’s turning 27 in May. Meanwhile, Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain are still under 30 (Cain will turn 30 a few days into the season). So most of the key contributors are at their peak or just slightly beyond it. In other words, there is a good chance most of these players will be around the same level this year.
Now, the two outliers are Alex Gordon and Kendrys Morales. Gordon takes such good care of himself that I have a hard time seeing him fall off much, even though he just turned 32. Morales, of course, does not depend on speed in any way, so it’s not a big concern that he’ll be 33 in June—his power might drop a bit but he’s actually been pretty consistent his last three full seasons.
The Rotation
It’s true, there is no ace here, unless Yordano Ventura takes a major step forward. But the addition of Ian Kennedy to the group of Ventura, Edinson Volquez, and Kris Medlen means there isn’t really a weak spot, either. Even the fifth spot in the rotation should be manned capably by some mix of Danny Duffy, Chris Young, Mike Minor, Dillon Gee, John Lannan, and Chien-Ming Wang. What they lack in star quality, the Royals have more than made up for with depth. Not many teams can say this, but every single night, the Royals are going to start a pitcher with the capability to throw six or seven strong innings, then turn it over to…
The Bullpen
Yeah, they’re still pretty good. You can’t replace Greg Holland, but you can add Joakim Soria to help offset that loss. This was already a deep unit, and the back end of Soria/Luke Hochevar, Kelvin Herrera, and Wade Davis should continue to dominate. If Duffy ends up working out of the bullpen, that just adds another weapon to an already-potent arsenal.
The Manager (and Coaches)
Consider what 2012 you would have thought if you’d read this then. But when the switch went on for Ned Yost, it went ON. Now this team is a reflection of its manager: relaxed, confident, and quietly but completely certain they are the best. As Dizzy Dean said, it ain’t bragging if you can back it up. Yost seems to know just how to get the most out of his players, and he’s so good at keeping role players in the spots where they can succeed. He’s backed up by a very underrated coaching staff—Royals fans know how good they are, but I’m still not sure the rest of baseball knows. Pitching coach Dave Eiland has shown repeatedly he can get good results from a variety of pitchers. Rusty Kuntz has done amazing work with the outfielders and the baserunners—there’s a lot more to defense and stealing bases than just being fast and Kuntz has taught his charges well. Hitting coach Dale Sveum has stabilized that position and now the Royals have an offensive plan. And consider how good the Royals are at things like instant replay challenges. This coaching staff has a great mastery of details. That can be the edge in what will probably be an AL Central dogfight.
Confidence
I alluded to it in the last section, but this is an extremely confident bunch, as they should be. I tend to dislike the sort of psychological analysis that you see a lot, where a team “knows how to win” or whatever, but this team does know how to win: put the ball in play, run like heck, catch everything on defense, then turn the lead over to the bullpen. When you know going in to each game that you have a good chance to win, thanks to your starting pitcher, your offense, your defense, and your bullpen, it’s got to be easier to play well. So yeah, the confidence that comes from winning the American League pennant two years in a row could be a big help in trying to win it a third time.