On Eric Hosmer’s Future With the Royals

Note: This was originally published on Pine Tar Press on March 2, 2016.

Two days ago, Eric Hosmer spoke with MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan and made it clear that he would be open to a long-term deal with the Royals that would keep him in Kansas City past 2017. My initial reaction to that is wondering what he’s supposed to say with two more years left under team control. I just can’t imagine a quote along the lines of, “Well, you know, I’ve got two years left here and then I’m getting out as fast as humanly possible.” That’s not to say that Hosmer does want out, but more to say that the comments should be taken with a grain of salt.

Since those comments were made public, the Royals were able to lock up Salvador Perez for an additional two seasons with his new contract extension. Hosmer and Perez are close, so that probably helps. Hosmer also routinely refers to Alex Gordon as his hero and “Alexander the Great,” so Gordon staying in Kansas City can’t hurt either, if you’re looking for Hosmer to remain a Royal for a long time.

Ultimately, that article led me down a couple trains of thought. The first is what an extension for Hosmer could possibly look like. For a deal to get done, I imagine it would need to get done around now and would begin in the 2017 season. I also think that the Royals would want at least four free agent seasons and would probably prefer something more like six. Also, that would get Hosmer the huge money he’s likely looking to get. That would take Hosmer to his age-33 season.

Without getting too deep into the numbers, I look at his final arbitration season as a safe bet for him to make around $12 million. So start with that number and maybe a bit less to fit him into the 2017 payroll and we can go from there. My gut is that it would take 7 years and $175 million to get him on the open market, which is an average of $25 million per year. Let’s say he gives the Royals a slight discount because he loves the city, the team and the winning and that he’d accept an average annual value of $23 million per year as a free agent. With the $12 million, that makes the contract a 7-year deal for $150 million. The breakdown could go $12M-$20M-$20M-$25M-$25M-$25M-$23M.

Why do I have it broken down in that manner? It’s pretty simple. The Royals already have just under $60 million committed to the 2018 roster for five players and a bit more than $56 million for four players in 2019. So those two years are kept down a bit at just $20 million. Then in 2020 through 2023, he gets bigger money. Of course, in those years, the Royals theoretically will be working with their new television contract in addition to the extra money from the national television deal.

Would Hosmer take that deal? That’s the $150 million question, but it does seem to be a pretty fair deal right now for him. Looking at the AAV of free agent years, he would earn more than Mark Teixeira in his deal, the same as Joe Mauer in his and the same as Chris Davis in his new deal with the Orioles. Maybe the Royals give him an opt out following the 2019 season to make Hosmer a free agent heading into his age-30 season after paying him $52 million for three years.  Regardless, it’d at least make things interesting. Personally, I think it would get the job done and could fit in the Royals payroll structure.

But then there’s another question that pops in my head. Is that really the best way for the Royals to be spending their money? To say Hosmer’s career hasn’t gone as expected/hoped would be an understatement. Offensively, he’s yet to put together two consecutive good years. He’s a corner infielder with a career SLG of .427 and a career high in extra base hits of 56. His ISO (slugging percentage minus average) is just .147. His .822 OPS last season (a career high) ranked 12^th among qualifying first basemen. His .459 SLG ranked 15^th.

I’m not entirely convinced that the Royals should be giving out their biggest contract in team history (by more than double) to a guy playing an offensive position who is honestly about middle of the pack. Hosmer could go a long way toward changing my mind on that fact by having another good season in 2016. The issue, though, is that by doing that, he’d raise his price tag to the point that the Royals likely couldn’t afford him. So really what they’d be paying for is the hope that when he hits his prime, he will build on his 2015 rather than alternating good and average to below average seasons.

All that said, Hosmer’s value goes beyond his bat. He’s a legitimately excellent defender at first base. The metrics don’t show everything, but he has great range, throws well and, maybe most importantly, does a great job of saving the rest of his infield. I truly believe he was overrated defensively for a lot of his career, but really since coming back from the broken hand in 2014, he’s been fantastic. With offense down throughout baseball, his defense is a real weapon.

But then there’s the argument of how important first base defense really is for a team. My gut on that argument is that it’s more important than many would lead you to believe and less important than many others. I know where first base is on the defensive spectrum, but someone the caliber of Hosmer has big value.

There’s also some value in being the public face of the franchise. You get the feeling that Hosmer actually enjoys that aspect of the game, and a winning team needs someone to be the face. I’m not saying that’s the most important thing in the world, but it’s not nothing.

Here we are, at the end of this piece about Eric Hosmer, and I’m still not sure if I’d give him the contract we talked about earlier. On one hand, it’s an awful lot of money. On the other hand, there’s an awful lot of money in baseball and Eric Hosmer is just now entering his prime.

Not to get too far ahead of myself, but if the best is yet to come, Hosmer could get himself on a Hall of Fame track during the proposed contract. With 779 hits now, he could be over 2,200 by the time his contract ends with some good baseball left in him. Maybe the home run power would finally develop and he’d average 22-25 homers per year and get to more than 250. He could be over 1,100 RBIs, 400 doubles and 1,000 career runs. Add in four or five seasons after that, and it’s not hard to imagine him getting to any of a number of magical totals needed to make even Cooperstown a reality.

I’m not saying I’m predicting that. That would be crazy. But it’s certainly all possible for Hosmer. So yeah, you know what? I think Hosmer would absolutely be worth the risk of that 7-year, $150 million contract. Any deal that length and for that much money is a risk, but there are worse things than betting on an already good player’s prime. Now that I’ve convinced myself, it’s time to convince Hosmer and Boras to get that done. I mean he did say he’d listen to an offer on a long-term deal. Why wouldn’t we believe him on that?