Note: This was originally published on Pine Tar Press on March 9, 2016
After last week’s post detailing five reasons I expect the Royals to return to the postseason this year, it’s time for the pessimistic look at the upcoming season. Keep in mind—please!—that I do actually expect the Royals to be in the playoffs again. This is simply an exercise in finding reasons that the team might fall short of expectations. I think if three or more of these question marks do become problems, then the Royals could be in trouble, but one or two of these issues shouldn’t stop them.
The Division
Every other team in the division made moves to get better this offseason. The Royals kind of treaded water, if you compare them to last year’s Opening Day roster. If you throw in the departure of Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist, the Royals are a lesser team than the one that captured a World Series title. Now, there was a sizable gap between Kansas City and the other four AL Central teams last year, and that could be tough for them to make up in one winter. And while the other four teams look improved, inevitably one or more of them will have injuries or just plain bad luck and suffer a disappointing season. But improved teams mean the Royals’ margin for error is slightly less. It’s not hard to imagine the Royals dropping to 90 wins just because the competition might be better.
Right Field
This was a question mark even before we learned Jarrod Dyson would miss the first couple weeks of the season with an injured oblique muscle. And that’s the best-case scenario; missing all of spring training means he’ll be a little behind everyone else, even with a minor-league rehab assignment. Dyson and Paulo Orlando had nice seasons last year, better than Alex Rios, who somehow had more plate appearances than those two combined. While either player figures to be a defensive upgrade from Rios, their offensive advantages over Rios are less than you might think: Dyson’s OPS+ was 87, Orlando’s was 90, and Rios’s was 73. I like Dyson and Orlando, but I fear the Royals may be trying to fashion a right fielder from two bench players. They’re useful players, but I’m not sure they can play every day without being exposed somewhat. And any minor league option (Jorge Bonifacio, Brett Eibner, Jose Martinez, Travis Snider) is also a question mark. The good news is the Royals did just fine with a subpar right fielder last year, but are they tempting fate this year?
Second Base
The other big question mark in the lineup is at second base. After two years of Omar Infante not hitting, the Royals still don’t have an alternative that isn’t a concern. Christian Colon has certainly come through in the playoffs, but could he handle playing every day if Infante continues to struggle? Like with the right field situation, the Royals thrived despite Infante’s struggles last year. And to be fair, Infante did have surgery after last season to remove bone chips from his right elbow. If healthy, he almost certainly will perform better at the plate than last year’s miserable .220/.234/.318 showing. Still, you can’t expect Infante to be much of an offensive contributor, and if he is hurting the team again, there’s no guarantee Colon can pick up the slack.
Injuries
Let’s not pretend the Royals were lucky with injuries last year. Key contributors like Alex Gordon, Greg Holland, and Jason Vargas all missed a lot of time with injuries. Even when they were available, they often were not at their most effective. Rios also missed time with a hand injury, and was probably less of a player because of it when he returned. We already touched on Infante’s elbow injury; although he played through it, he wasn’t helping the team offensively.
The Royals are already without Vargas and Holland following their Tommy John surgeries; 2016 is likely a washout for both men. The rotation and bullpen seem to have a lot of depth, but a long-term injury to someone like Yordano Ventura, Edinson Volquez, or Wade Davis would be a big blow. And that doesn’t even address the possibility of a long-term injury to a key position player. The Royals survived those injuries last year; there is no guarantee they can do it again if a Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, or Lorenzo Cain misses a lot of time.
The Odds
Simply put, it’s hard to make the playoffs year after year. In the American League last year, only one of the five postseason teams had made the playoffs in 2014: your Kansas City Royals. In 2014, the AL had one repeat postseason participant from 2013: the Detroit Tigers. The National League has a couple of teams with nice postseason streaks: St. Louis (of course) with five and Pittsburgh with three (although the last two have been wild-card game defeats).
Baseball seems to be a wide-open sport right now, which is exciting for fans everywhere (most fanbases can make a realistic case right now for their team being in the playoffs this year). MLB’s efforts to increase competition appear to be paying off right now, and I think that’s good for the sport. But if you want your team to experience the thrill of October baseball year in and year out, it’s not necessarily a good thing. Lots of things can happen on the way to building a dynasty: other teams get better, key players get hurt, or just plain old regression to the mean.
Keep in mind, I do not believe all of these misfortunes will befall the Royals. I expect another postseason appearance. But we should all remember that the road to October is a difficult one, and there are no guarantees.