After that weird first week of the season, we’ve gotten almost daily baseball for two weeks now, and that makes it feel like we’re in the thick of the baseball season. We’re still a couple weeks away from not having those wild swings in stats from game to game, so we’ll still talk about how early it is, but at least it feels like baseball season. It does appear that it won’t be quite the (relatively) easy path to the postseason for the Royals, though, which could be fun this summer. Though I didn’t mind getting to look forward to the playoffs for a full three months.
- I don’t think I’ve truly acknowledged just how fantastic Ian Kennedy has been for the Royals this season. In 20 innings, he’s given up just 13 hits and only three runs. Yes, he took the loss on Wednesday, but that was on the offense, not him. What I found interesting in that game was he gave up multiple hits in an inning twice, which was just the second and third time this season that he’s allowed multiple hits in an inning. I haven’t taken the time to look back at other starters, but that seems awfully impressive to me. I’m sure there will be a time or two (or even more) that Kennedy will struggle in a start, but he’s looked as good in his three starts as I’ve seen from him in the relatively limited number of starts of his I saw before he signed with the Royals. If he can keep his walk rate where it is now (2.3 BB/9), he has a chance to have a season similar to his 2011 when he won 21 games with Arizona. I’m not predicting 20+ wins, but he could have that type of year.
- The Royals currently sit at 10-5 and are in first place. They’re on pace for 108 wins. And they’ve done all that with basically one player playing above his talent level offensively, and that’s Salvador Perez (.280/.315/.580). I talked about this in my article about it being early but there being some trends to watch; this offense will come around at some point. Sure, the pitching might regress a little bit, but there’s too much talent on this team for them to struggle to scrape across four runs on seemingly a nightly basis. Two guys in particular, Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon, are hitters who when they get hot can absolutely carry a team. Both have looked lost at times in the first part of the season, but if they can get locked in, they make everybody else in the lineup better. So, I guess what I’m saying is watch out, rest of the American League, because the Royals aren’t even completely clicking yet and they’re winning games.
- After 15 games, Mike Moustakas has five home runs. He’s not the first Royals hitter to hit five homers in a 15 game stretch, and he’s probably not even the first to do it in the season’s first 15 games. After seeing his approach at the plate early, I think this could be the year that the Royals home run record finally falls. I’d put the odds at better than they’ve been since the days of Chili Davis or Dean Palmer, maybe around 15%. We’re still not seeing the same type of opposite field prowess we saw early last year, but his .259/.317/.569 line will certainly play. He just doesn’t often miss mistakes and when he does get them, he typically crushes them. Plus, hitting at the top of the lineup will get him more plate appearances to give him the chance to maybe, just maybe, make it to 37 home runs this season. It would be nice to get rid of that team home run record, so we’ll all rooting for you, Moose.
- While the offense is struggling, they’re doing something the Royals haven’t done in a long time. They’re seeing pitches. This year, they’re seeing about 3.9 pitches per plate appearance compared to just 3.7 last season. Seeing more pitches gets starters out of the game earlier and gets into opponents’ bullpens quicker. It’s a good thing. They’re still right at league average, but Gordon is seeing about 4.5 per plate appearance, Cain is seeing about 4.3 and Moustakas is seeing just over 4 per plate appearance. Those are all really good numbers. Their current rate would have ranked them sixth in all of baseball last season. They finished second to last in 2015. Their 7.4 percent walk rate is still toward the bottom of baseball, but it’s more than a full percent higher than last year’s 6.3 percent rate. More base runners is a good thing.
- I’m going to say something you may think is crazy, and I won’t blame you for believing that. I think Kelvin Herrera ends up having a better season than Wade Davis. And no, it’s not because I don’t believe in Wade Davis. As you know if you’ve been reading me for awhile, I’ve been leading the Kelvin Herrera fan club, but he’s become even filthier now with that new slider that he unveiled during the postseason. I think back to the at bat against Miguel Cabrera late in Tuesday’s game when he just threw three straight sliders to him and Cabrera had absolutely no shot. He can’t do that all the time because then hitters will either learn to lay off or they could potentially crush one. But then he came back last night with a high fastball to Cabrera. Why did that work? Because he had the fear of the slider in his mind. He’s already having a ridiculous start to the year with 12 strikeouts and just two walks in 8.1 innings. I’m really excited to see if he can keep this up. I’m guessing he will.