Baseball Prospectus Kansas City

We talk a lot about how spring training statistics don’t mean anything, and they really aren’t all that important, but that’s not entirely true. We most definitely should never be looking at the stats from spring games and making judgments based solely on them, but as spring progresses, they do have some meaning. I think a lot about Alex Gordon in 2017. The numbers on the surface looked like he might be on his way to a solid season, but when you really think about them, you saw a .468 SLG in an environment that favors hitters and realized how weak a lot of the contact was. That’s just one example in a sea of many, but it’s a place where you can see the stats and take some context clues to make some judgments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the numbers now that we’re about halfway through the spring and look at if they’re real or fake.
Alex Gordon
Might as well start here since he was the early example. He’s hitting .133/.229/.167. When a player is coming off a bad season and then has numbers like this, you start to worry a little bit. He has one extra base hit in 30 at bats, and in the time we’ve seen him play, it’s been a lot of weak ground balls. He talked about a new approach, but it sure looks like more of the same to me during the first few weeks of spring games. He’s been hitting at the top of the lineup a lot early on, and I think the reason is to get him at bats because if this is him, he’s a number nine hitter again.
Verdict: He’s not this bad, but I think the numbers are real in that they suggest last year might not have been a fluke.
Whit Merrifield
After a breakout year, Merrifield is hitting .484/.484/.968. He as three doubles, three triples and two home runs in 31 at bats. You can see by the average and OBP that he hasn’t walked any, but coming off the year he did and seeing him sting the ball seemingly every time he makes contact is really encouraging for Merrifield to continue to grow. His extra base hit numbers prorate to about 150 per 600 at bats, so that probably won’t hold, but he’s basically looked as good as the numbers suggest.
Verdict: He’s not this good, but I think the numbers are real in that they suggest last year might not have been a fluke.
Michael Saunders
Up until Jorge Bonifacio got popped for PEDs, I didn’t really focus much on Saunders, but now that he has a chance to make the team, it’s easy to look at his .304/.385/.391 line and think that he could maybe be something to help this team. He hasn’t played as much as the starters, so his sample is even smaller than the other small samples, but this is a similar situation to Gordon’s last year. He has two doubles, and one of them was in the ninth inning of a game against a guy who is most certainly a minor leaguer and the other one was a well placed gap shot that I don’t believe even reached the warning track. He hasn’t swung and missed much, but he’s looked like someone who doesn’t really have it anymore, which supports his 2017 season and 2016 second half.
Verdict: The numbers are sadly misleading.
Jake Junis
Did you really think I’d write an article about spring and not talk about my crush? Junis only has two appearances, so who knows what’ll happen, but he’s thrown six innings, allowed one home run (right down the line) and two hits with 10 strikeouts and zero walks. His fastball has been 93-95 and his slider has been unreal. His last outing he looked about as good as I’d seen him at any point last season. Yes, it’s just spring, but it’s hard not to be excited about him after the way he finished the season. The way some of his teammates talk about him, you wouldn’t be surprised if he pitched above what many believe his ceiling will be. I don’t think Junis is quite this dominant, but he’s a really solid pitcher, and this spring is showing it so far.
Verdict: It’s real and it’s spectacular.
Danny Duffy
He gave up seven runs in 3.2 innings yesterday against the A’s, who seem to bludgeon the Royals no matter where they play. Prior to that, he’d allowed two runs on three hits in five innings. One bad outing can skew stats so much without much of a sample that you don’t want to get all that worried, especially about a guy who has made at least 24 starts in each of the last four seasons and has a 3.47 ERA and 3.87 FIP in that time. For a veteran with the track record Duffy has, you don’t worry about a bad spring and especially not a bad spring start. It happens.
Verdict: He’s earned the stats, but nah.
Burch Smith
There was a lot to be excited about with the Rule 5 pick given the big fastball and former top prospect rankings before injuries just destroyed Smith. He’s still a great bet to make the team because they don’t want to lose him, but a 7.88 ERA is is met with eight walks in eight innings. And the numbers could be even worse, but three of the runs are unearned, and some of that is from an error he made himself. From what I saw, the fastball isn’t nearly as big as it’s been in previous seasons and it has seemed awfully straight, a la Brandon Maurer. Maybe he can develop, but it’s been a rough go.
Verdict: The stats are, sadly, real.
The samples are still tiny, so it’s pretty easy for the narrative to turn around, but what we’ve seen in the first three weeks of spring training is starting to give us an idea of what this team might look like. I think with the free agent additions, the offense is going to be a bit better than we expected when spring started, but still not especially good. I think the pitching staff is about what we all thought. The starters have shown flashes of being solid to good while the bullpen has proven inconsistent. That seems about right to me. With 13 spring games to go before the game in Omaha and many of the starters getting some more at bats over them, we’ll see if the stats hold up for the guys I think are real and if they catch up for those who I think are not.

RECAP: Make the whole rotation out of Jake Junis

by Colby Wilson April 9, 2018

So what we had on this night was an answer to my previous query of, “When should Brandon Maurer pitch?” A: Any game the Royals are up or down by nine or more runs. Maurer got that opportunity thanks to Jake Junis, who carried a no-hitter into the seventh and generally looked the part of […]

Tags: Jake Junis, Kansas City, Mike Moustakas, Royals |

Aug 8, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Brandon Maurer (32) pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals in the eighth at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

RECAP: Please don’t pitch Brandon Maurer when it matters

by Colby Wilson April 8, 2018

For just a second, I’m gonna say some nice things about Jason Hammel and Ian Kennedy. In back-to-back days, Kennedy and Hammel pitched a combined 12 innings. They allowed seven combined hits and no runs to the Cleveland Indians, a very good team with the deepest lineup the other side of Houston. That is not […]

Tags: Brandon Maurer, Jason Hammel, Jorge Soler, Kansas City, Royals |

Apr 4, 2018; Anaheim, CA, USA; Cleveland Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) celebrates with the dugout after scoring off an RBI single by second baseman Jason Kipnis (not pictured) during the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Series Preview: Royals at Cleveland Indians, April 6-8

by David Lesky April 6, 2018

The Royals, fresh off a real-life win and two days off head to Cleveland to take on the best team in the division. The Indians have had a bit of a tough go to start the year, but it’s just six games. Last year’s sensation, Jose Ramirez, has just one hit in 23 at bats […]

Tags: Carlos Carrasco, Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Jason Hammel, Kansas City, Mike Clevinger, Royals, Trevor Bauer |

Friday Notes

by David Lesky April 6, 2018

The season has lasted eight full days and the Royals have played four games. That alone makes any kind of significant analysis difficult, and when you add in the abnormally cold weather, it’s hard to come to any real conclusions this soon. The only thing I think I can say definitively is that I still […]

Tags: Abraham Almonte, Hunter Dozier, Kansas City, Kelvin Herrera, Miguel Almonte, Royals, Samir Duenez, Seuly Matias, Trevor Oaks |

So It Begins (BP Kansas City Episode 95)

by Michael Engel April 5, 2018

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/kansascitybaseballvault/2018/04/05/so-it-begins-bp-kansas-city-episode-95.mp3 Despite the weather, the Royals actually managed to get a couple games in during the first week of the MLB season. Now, the results? Not that great. We discussed the meaning of early-season stats – that is, that there isn’t much meaning yet – and what stood out from four chilly games. We also […]

Tags: Kansas City, Kyle Zimmer, Opening Day, Royals |

Recap: Jake Junis is Good!

by Colby Wilson April 3, 2018

Holy cow, what a difference a competent pitching performance makes. Fundamentally, the Kansas City Royals were no different offensively in game two of their series against the Detroit Tigers than they were in Monday’s matinee. The offense sputtered, and that’s probably an insult to sputtering offenses. They eked out a meager run against noted human […]

Tags: Cheslor Cuthbert, Jake Junis, Kansas City, Royals |

Recap: Royals Baseball Not Good Again

by Colby Wilson April 2, 2018

Oh neat, Francisco Liriano got the win for Ron Gardenhire against the Kansas City Royals. If this were 2006, that would not be a problematic sentence, because Liriano was an All-Star and Gardenhire was coaching the playoff bound Minnesota Twins. Twelve years later, somehow both are once again gainfully employed in the American League Central, […]

Tags: Alcides Escobar, Jason Hammel, Kansas City, Royals |

Getting down to business

by Craig Brown April 2, 2018

Money comes in and money goes out. Baseball is a business and everyone involved is trying to figure out how to make a profit. This won’t come as a surprise to anyone who’s been paying attention, but the Royals payroll has decreased. It’s the first time since 2011 that number has seen a dip. That’s what […]

Tags: Kansas City, Mike Moustakas, Royals, Tickets |

RECAP: That Game Was Poop

by Colby Wilson March 29, 2018

Opening Day is a time for optimism and happiness, that the long winter has ended and whatever else may come, hope springs eternal for your favorite team, be they World Series contenders or a Quad-A club with two recognizable faces and a roster full of has-beens and never-weres. The Kansas City Royals may be in […]

Tags: Danny Duffy, Kansas City, Mike Moustakas, Royals |

We Made It: Opening Day (BP Kansas City Episode 94)

by Michael Engel March 29, 2018

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/kansascitybaseballvault/2018/03/29/we-made-it-opening-day-bp-kansas-city-episode-94.mp3 That was a long offseason, and finally, after all the contract talks, trades, and other nonsense…the 2018 season begins. Of course, the Royals just learned that they’ll be without Salvador Perez after a torn MCL. The initial timeline is four to six weeks of recovery, so we discussed how the Royals may approach the […]

Tags: Danny Duffy, Kansas City, Royals, Salvador Perez |