Aug 7, 2018; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak (14) hits a single against Boston Red Sox in the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Series Preview: Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays, August 13-16

The Royals remain home, but get to return to facing American League teams as the team they defeated in the 2015 ALCS comes to town. That’s right, friends. It’s Blue Jays week, which doesn’t really mean anything, but it could have if both teams had stayed good a little longer. The Blue Jays were a […]

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Series Preview: Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals, August 10-12

The Royals welcome in their neighbors from the east, the St. Louis Cardinals in a much needed respite from their city. It hasn’t been a great season for the Cardinals, but they’re still within striking distance of the wild card in the National League, albeit bunched up with a handful of teams. They made some […]

MLB: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

Series Preview: Royals at New York Yankees, July 26-29

When you have powers like the Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees squaring off, the whole baseball world will take notice. The Yankees, of course, are one of baseball’s best teams, owning the second best record in the whole sport. It’s unfortunate for them that the best record belongs to the team ahead of […]

Sep 19, 2017; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers right fielder Nicholas Castellanos (9) hits a two run home run in the sixth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Series Preview: Royals vs. Detroit Tigers, July 23-25

Break up the Royals, everyone. Winners of three straight and owners of their first series sweep of the season, they welcome the Detroit Tigers to town. The Tigers are sort of interesting in that they way overperformed for the first two and a half months and got to just one game under .500 after a […]

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Building a better bullpen

It seems especially futile to project any kind of Opening Day bullpen, even at this point. Not so much because it doesn’t matter. More because it seems like this is the Royals version of a revolving door. The group they break camp with for the opener on Thursday will most assuredly look different by the […]

We talk a lot about how spring training statistics don’t mean anything, and they really aren’t all that important, but that’s not entirely true. We most definitely should never be looking at the stats from spring games and making judgments based solely on them, but as spring progresses, they do have some meaning. I think a lot about Alex Gordon in 2017. The numbers on the surface looked like he might be on his way to a solid season, but when you really think about them, you saw a .468 SLG in an environment that favors hitters and realized how weak a lot of the contact was. That’s just one example in a sea of many, but it’s a place where you can see the stats and take some context clues to make some judgments. 
With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the numbers now that we’re about halfway through the spring and look at if they’re real or fake.
Alex Gordon
Might as well start here since he was the early example. He’s hitting .133/.229/.167. When a player is coming off a bad season and then has numbers like this, you start to worry a little bit. He has one extra base hit in 30 at bats, and in the time we’ve seen him play, it’s been a lot of weak ground balls. He talked about a new approach, but it sure looks like more of the same to me during the first few weeks of spring games. He’s been hitting at the top of the lineup a lot early on, and I think the reason is to get him at bats because if this is him, he’s a number nine hitter again.
Verdict: He’s not this bad, but I think the numbers are real in that they suggest last year might not have been a fluke.
Whit Merrifield
After a breakout year, Merrifield is hitting .484/.484/.968. He as three doubles, three triples and two home runs in 31 at bats. You can see by the average and OBP that he hasn’t walked any, but coming off the year he did and seeing him sting the ball seemingly every time he makes contact is really encouraging for Merrifield to continue to grow. His extra base hit numbers prorate to about 150 per 600 at bats, so that probably won’t hold, but he’s basically looked as good as the numbers suggest.
Verdict: He’s not this good, but I think the numbers are real in that they suggest last year might not have been a fluke.
Michael Saunders
Up until Jorge Bonifacio got popped for PEDs, I didn’t really focus much on Saunders, but now that he has a chance to make the team, it’s easy to look at his .304/.385/.391 line and think that he could maybe be something to help this team. He hasn’t played as much as the starters, so his sample is even smaller than the other small samples, but this is a similar situation to Gordon’s last year. He has two doubles, and one of them was in the ninth inning of a game against a guy who is most certainly a minor leaguer and the other one was a well placed gap shot that I don’t believe even reached the warning track. He hasn’t swung and missed much, but he’s looked like someone who doesn’t really have it anymore, which supports his 2017 season and 2016 second half.
Verdict: The numbers are sadly misleading.
Jake Junis
Did you really think I’d write an article about spring and not talk about my crush? Junis only has two appearances, so who knows what’ll happen, but he’s thrown six innings, allowed one home run (right down the line) and two hits with 10 strikeouts and zero walks. His fastball has been 93-95 and his slider has been unreal. His last outing he looked about as good as I’d seen him at any point last season. Yes, it’s just spring, but it’s hard not to be excited about him after the way he finished the season. The way some of his teammates talk about him, you wouldn’t be surprised if he pitched above what many believe his ceiling will be. I don’t think Junis is quite this dominant, but he’s a really solid pitcher, and this spring is showing it so far.
Verdict: It’s real and it’s spectacular.
Danny Duffy
He gave up seven runs in 3.2 innings yesterday against the A’s, who seem to bludgeon the Royals no matter where they play. Prior to that, he’d allowed two runs on three hits in five innings. One bad outing can skew stats so much without much of a sample that you don’t want to get all that worried, especially about a guy who has made at least 24 starts in each of the last four seasons and has a 3.47 ERA and 3.87 FIP in that time. For a veteran with the track record Duffy has, you don’t worry about a bad spring and especially not a bad spring start. It happens.
Verdict: He’s earned the stats, but nah.
Burch Smith
There was a lot to be excited about with the Rule 5 pick given the big fastball and former top prospect rankings before injuries just destroyed Smith. He’s still a great bet to make the team because they don’t want to lose him, but a 7.88 ERA is is met with eight walks in eight innings. And the numbers could be even worse, but three of the runs are unearned, and some of that is from an error he made himself. From what I saw, the fastball isn’t nearly as big as it’s been in previous seasons and it has seemed awfully straight, a la Brandon Maurer. Maybe he can develop, but it’s been a rough go.
Verdict: The stats are, sadly, real.
The samples are still tiny, so it’s pretty easy for the narrative to turn around, but what we’ve seen in the first three weeks of spring training is starting to give us an idea of what this team might look like. I think with the free agent additions, the offense is going to be a bit better than we expected when spring started, but still not especially good. I think the pitching staff is about what we all thought. The starters have shown flashes of being solid to good while the bullpen has proven inconsistent. That seems about right to me. With 13 spring games to go before the game in Omaha and many of the starters getting some more at bats over them, we’ll see if the stats hold up for the guys I think are real and if they catch up for those who I think are not.

Spring Training Stats: Real or Fake?

We talk a lot about how spring training statistics don’t mean anything, and they really aren’t all that important, but that’s not entirely true. We most definitely should never be looking at the stats from spring games and making judgments based solely on them, but as spring progresses, they do have some meaning. I think […]